How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results:

Joao Pedro - Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt - 23/20 - WON
Azz-Eddine Ounahi - Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt - 49/50 - WON
Christoph Baumgartner - Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt - 21/20 - LOST
Bryan Cristante - Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt - 11/10 - LOST
Corentin Tolisso - Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1pt - 11/10 - WON

Running P/L: +20.63pts

Birmingham vs Middlesbrough

Tommy Conway – Over 0.5 Shots on Target - 1pt

68.27% AI probability | 53.48% implied | 27.66% EV | 17/20 (BetMGM)

With Middlesbrough firmly in the automatic promotion fight, Conway continues to lead the line with real consistency in front of goal. He’s registered a shot on target in 10 of his last 12 appearances and remains heavily involved in Boro’s attacking play, making at least one effort on frame a strong angle.

Tomoki Iwata – Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt

50.84% AI probability | 46.51% implied | 9.31% EV | 6/4 (Ladbrokes)

Iwata faces a matchup that naturally generates fouls, coming up against Morris and Hackney - Morris who is drawing 2.85 fouls per 90 and Hackney who draws 1.28. His recent foul numbers show a consistent ability to clear this line, and the expected physical battle makes this a solid value play.

Tomoki Iwata Fouls Committed: 2, 4, 4, 3, 1, 0, 3, 0, 3, 2.

5.0
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Real Madrid vs Getafe

Eduardo Camavinga – Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt

70.62% AI probability | 54.65% implied | 29.23% EV | 5/6 (William Hill)

Camavinga’s aggressive midfield style continues to translate into foul volume, clearing this line in six of his last seven matches. Against Arambarri and Milla. Up against Arambarri who draws 2.09 fouls per 90 and Milla who draws 1.81 per 90. The matchup sets up perfectly for another busy defensive outing.

Eduardo Camavinga Fouls Committed: 1, 2, 3, 3, 3, 2, 3, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0

Arda Güler – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt

73.4% AI probability | 57.14% implied | 28.45% EV | 3/4 (BetMGM)

Güler is making the most of his extended run in the side, showing real confidence to shoot whenever space opens up. He’s gone over this line in 10 of his last 15 starts, and his willingness to pull the trigger keeps this line firmly in value territory.

Arda Güler Shots: 2, 1, 4, 2, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 1, 4, 0, 4