Middlesbrough vs Southampton

The second of the Championship play-off first legs takes place at the Riverside as Middlesbrough host Southampton.

Due to their draw at Wrexham on the final day, Boro finished below Southampton on goal difference, despite being in automatic promotion contention for much of the season. The Saints arrive with momentum, having beaten Preston 3-1 on the final day to extend their league unbeaten run to 19 games — a sequence that included 14 victories.

Ahead of the game, Matthew O’Regan has a 6/1 bet builder.

Leg 1: Both Teams To Score

Best odds of 5/6 at Betfred while publishing.

While play-off games -particularly first legs -are typically lower scoring, neither manager is known for taking a cautious approach. BTTS has landed in 21 of Southampton’s 23 away games, the most in the division. Coincidentally, one of the exceptions was a 4-0 defeat at the Riverside, where the Saints still generated 1.12 xG from 16 shots.

Middlesbrough have a mixed record for BTTS at home, with it landing in just under half of their matches (11/23). Kim Hellberg’s side has often struggled to convert the abundance of chances they concede against low blocks, scoring just three goals from a combined 170 shots and 15.22 xG at home to Hull, Oxford, Charlton, Bristol City, Millwall, Portsmouth and Sheffield Wednesday. The Swede may look back on those games as missed opportunities in the promotion race but will instead be looking forward to a more open contest against an expansive Southampton side.

Leg 2: Flynn Downes Over 1.5 Fouls

Best odds of 3/4 at Ladbrokes while publishing.

After receiving a retrospective three-match ban for an off-the-ball incident against Swansea, Flynn Downes was forced to miss the FA Cup semi-final against Manchester City, the crunch tie with Ipswich and the season finale against Preston. While academy graduate Cameron Bragg proved a capable deputy, Downes is expected to return straight to the starting XI on Saturday.

The combative midfielder has picked up 12 cards in 32 starts this season, averaging two fouls per 90. He has committed 2+ fouls in seven of his last nine appearances and will be tasked with handling a Middlesbrough midfield featuring Aidan Morris (2.63 fouls won per 90) and Alan Browne (1.48), while Tommy Conway (1.53) and Morgan Whittaker (1.37) will also occupy those central areas.

Leg 3: Leo Scienza Over 1.5 Shots

Best odds of 4/9 at bet365 while publishing.

Southampton’s front-footed approach should provide plenty of opportunities for their array of attacking talent - most notably Leo Scienza. The Brazilian winger has been a bright spark this season and a key contributor to their impressive attacking output.

The 27-year-old is averaging 3.13 shots per 90 in the Championship and has registered at least two shots in 23 of his 30 starts.

Leg 4: Aidan Morris Over 0.5 Shots

Best odds of 4/9 at bet365 while publishing.

While Championship Player of the Season Hayden Hackney has received much of the acclaim, Aidan Morris has gone somewhat under the radar as a key figure for Boro. The USA international is an all-action midfielder who plays an important role in driving his side forward.

He is averaging 1.54 shots per 90 this season and has had at least one attempt in 30 of his 37 starts, including 20 of the last 22.

Leg 5: Luke Ayling - Over 0.5 Fouls Drawn

Best odds of 3/10 at Skybet while publishing.

At 34 years old, Luke Ayling is one of the more experienced players in the Middlesbrough squad, and Hellberg will be calling on that know-how during the play-offs. Ayling has promotion experience with Leeds and will be hoping to use that expertise across the two legs.

Deployed at right-back or on the right of a back three, Ayling is adept at winning fouls to relieve pressure. He averages 1.42 fouls won per 90 and is likely to come up against Cyle Larin (1.69 fouls per 90) as well as Cameron Archer (1.62).