How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Saturday's Results

Dominik Szoboszlai Over 2.5 Shots – 1pt - WON @ 17/10
Nico O’Reilly Over 0.5 Shots On Target – 1pt - LOST
Bournemouth Win – 1pt - WON @ 29/20
Eli Junior Kroupi Anytime Goalscorer – 1pt - LOST
Jack Hinshelwood Anytime Goalscorer – 1pt - WON @ 16/5

2025/26 Season P+L: +28 pts

Sunday's Tips:

West Ham vs Arsenal

Tip 1: Konstantinos Mavropanos - Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt

Best odds of 11/10 at bet365 while publishing.

AI Probability 60% | Implied Probability 48% | EV 25%

Konstantinos Mavropanos to register over 0.5 shots looks a strong angle based on both recent trends and matchup dynamics.

The West Ham defender has recorded at least one shot in four of his last five home matches, with shot totals of 1, 2, 1, 0, and 1 across that run. He is also averaging over one shot per game across his last 15 domestic appearances, highlighting consistent involvement during attacking set pieces.

The matchup also suits his profile. Arsenal have conceded at least four corners in each of their last 10 away games, creating opportunities for aerial threats in the box. Mavropanos remains one of West Ham’s biggest targets from dead-ball situations, making another effort on goal a realistic expectation.

Barcelona vs Real Madrid

Tip 2: Jose Vinicius Junior - To Score Or Assist - 1pt

Best odds of 6/5 at bet365 at the time of publishing.

AI Probability 50% | Implied Probability 45% | EV 11%

Vinícius Júnior to score or assist stands out as one of the stronger attacking angles on the board given his current form and record in this fixture.

The Brazilian has delivered a goal contribution in four of his last five matches and comes into the game with 4 goals and 1 assist across his last four appearances. His overall La Liga numbers remain elite as well, with 15 goals and 5 assists this season.

He also has a strong recent record against Barcelona, clearing this line in three of his last five meetings with their rivals. With Madrid likely to rely heavily on transition moments, Vinícius remains their biggest threat in open space.

Mainz vs Union Berlin

Tip 3: Nadiem Amiri - Anytime Goalscorer - 1pt

Best odds of 11/4 at Skybet while publishing.

AI Probability 35% | Implied Probability 27% | EV 32%

Nadiem Amiri continues to deliver in front of goal and looks a strong anytime goalscorer option against Union Berlin.

The Mainz midfielder has scored in six of his last 10 matches and is up to 11 goals for the season. His penalty role further boosts his chances, especially with Mainz winning the second-most penalties in the Bundesliga this season behind only Bayern Munich.

Amiri also enjoys this matchup, having scored against Union Berlin in each of his last three meetings with them.

Parma vs Roma

Tip 4: Evan NDicka - Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt

Best odds of 10/11 available at BetMGM UK while publishing.

AI Probability 58% | Implied Probability 52% | EV 12%

Evan Ndicka over 0.5 shots continues to be one of the more reliable defensive player props available.

The Roma defender has registered at least one shot in eight of his last 10 matches and is averaging 0.92 shots per game across his last 15 appearances. His recent shot numbers underline that consistency, recording totals of 1, 0, 2, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 4, and 0.

Given his threat from set pieces, Ndicka usually only needs one attacking situation to clear this line.

Angers vs Strasbourg

Tip 5: Jordan Lefort - Over 1.5 Tackles - 1pt

Best odds of 11/10 at Ladbrokes while publishing.

AI Probability 63% | Implied Probability 48% | EV 33%

Jordan Lefort over 1.5 tackles is backed by strong recent consistency and season-long numbers.

He has cleared this line in eight of his last 10 matches, with tackle totals of 5, 1, 2, 2, 0, 3, 3, 3, 2, and 1 across that stretch. Lefort is also averaging 1.65 tackles per game across his last 20 domestic appearances.

His role naturally brings defensive involvement, and the recent numbers suggest another busy game defensively is likely.