Germany begin their first World Cup knockout campaign since 2014 on Monday, with Paraguay standing between Julian Nagelsmann's side and a place in the last 16.
Germany vs ParaguaySee All Odds
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Germany return to the World Cup knockout stage for the first time since lifting the trophy in 2014 as they face Paraguay in Boston on Monday, aiming to keep their revival under Julian Nagelsmann on track. Despite topping Group E with two wins from three matches, a final-day defeat to Ecuador exposed some vulnerabilities, while Paraguay scraped into the last 32 as one of the best third-placed teams after an organised and resilient group-stage campaign. With Germany looking to avoid another early World Cup exit and Paraguay hoping to upset one of the tournament's traditional heavyweights, a place in the last 16 is on the line.
Germany vs Paraguay Best Bets
Recommended Bet: Germany to Win & Under 3.5 Goals
Best Odds: 23/20 (Quinnbet)
Advised Stake: 1pt
Germany's final group game may have ended in defeat to Ecuador, but they still topped Group E after winning their opening two matches and scoring 10 goals across the three fixtures. Julian Nagelsmann's side now enter their first World Cup knockout match since lifting the trophy in 2014, where the margin for error is much smaller and performances are often more controlled.
Paraguay have built their success on defensive resilience rather than attacking firepower. They scored just once in their final two group games, held Australia to a goalless draw, and have a remarkable record of failing to score in all five of their previous World Cup knockout matches. Against European opposition in the knockout stages, they have lost all four meetings without finding the net.
Germany are unlikely to underestimate a disciplined Paraguay side, but they should have enough quality through the likes of Jamal Musiala, Florian Wirtz and Kai Havertz to edge the contest. With Paraguay expected to defend deep and Germany historically comfortable seeing out knockout victories, this has the look of a professional rather than emphatic performance.
A 1-0 or 2-0 Germany victory appeals, making Germany to Win & Under 3.5 Goals an attractive angle.
Who is the favourite to win Germany vs Paraguay?
Germany are clear favourites to reach the last 16, priced at 7/20 (Akbets), reflecting the strength they showed in topping Group E despite a final-game defeat to Ecuador. Julian Nagelsmann's side have scored 10 goals in three matches with seven different players finding the net.
Paraguay, meanwhile, are 10/1 (Bet365) outsiders after progressing as one of the best third-placed sides, while the 9/2 (Betfred) draw suggests the bookmakers still respect Gustavo Alfaro's disciplined defensive setup.
Germany have also won each of their last five World Cup knockout ties against South American opposition and are expected to have too much quality over 90 minutes, even if Paraguay prove difficult to break down.
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Germany vs Paraguay Bet Builder Tip
- Andrés Cubas 3+ Fouls Committed
- Jonathan Tah 1+ Fouls Committed
- Florian Wirtz 1+ Shot on Target
Best price 18/5 with BetMGM
Andrés Cubas 3+ Fouls Committed
Cubas has committed the most fouls at the World Cup so far with 11.
He will be operating in the midfield up against one of the World Cup and Germany's most fouled player, Jamal Musiala. He has won 9 fouls this tournament.
Germany's third most fouled player, Pavlovic, will also start in midfield. He has drawn 4 fouls despite playing reduced minutes.
Jonathan Tah 1+ Fouls Committed
Jonathan Tah Fouls Committed: 1, 0, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 2, 2, 1, 4, 3
Tah has committed a foul in 14 of his last 16 international games including in two games at this world cup.
He is up against Paraguays most fouled player in Julio Enciso, who has won 8 fouls this tournament.
CB fouls vs Paraguay at the World Cup: 0 , 1 , 1 , 1 , 2 , 0 , 3.
Florian Wirtz 1+ Shot on Target
Florian Wirtz is the joint-most active shooter on this Germany side thus far. Though it hasn't quite translated into a high volume of shots on target it is a positive sign.
Against a Paraguay side that will sit deep and defend Wirtz technical ability in the box, his tendency to arrive in space, and willingness to shoot from distance will be crucial.
Against a side that had conceded the 16th highest xG against them in the tournament you would expect this star studded Germany side to create chances and Wirtz can be on the end of them.
Germany vs Paraguay Player Prop Bet
Recommended Bet: Florian Wirtz Score or Assist
Best Odds: 17/20 (Virgin Bet)
Advised Stake: 1pt
Florian Wirtz xG + xA at the World Cup: 0.31, 0.78, 0.63
Wirtz already has two assists at the World Cup and based on his shooting stats his role isn't limited to solely being creator.
As I mentioned above his creativity on the ball is going to be crucial to breaking down a disciplined Paraguay side.
