How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Nottingham Forest vs LeedsSee All Odds

Igor Jesus Over 2.5 Shots - 1pt

  • 67.22% ai probability
  • 47.62% odds implied 
  • 41.16% expected value

11/10 with bet365.

Jesus is an appealing option for 3+ shots if, as expected, he leads the line for Nottingham Forest against Leeds. He averaged around 2.7 shots per 90 last season, registering 70 attempts across 37 Premier League appearances, so the line is well within his normal range when given a full game.

The key is his expected workload. With Chris Wood carrying fitness concerns, Jesus should have a strong chance of 70+ minutes, giving him plenty of time to clear the line. His willingness to shoot from range, attack crosses and compete for second balls also suits a matchup against Leeds, where Forest should be able to create opportunities.

With Morgan Gibbs-White and Dan Ndoye providing service around him, I expect Jesus to be involved whenever Forest get forward.

Igor Jesus Over 2.5
Nottingham Forest v Leeds [Player Shots]
1pt
10/11

Brentford vs TottenhamSee All Odds

Kevin Schade Anytime Goalscorer - 0.75pts

  • 34.32% ai probability
  • 25.64% odds implied
  • 33.85% expected value

29/10 with Ladbrokes.

The Brentford forward scored twice and provided two assists in the Bees' 7-0 pre-season win over Eintracht Frankfurt, following that up from a strong end to last season when he scored in the final-day draw at Liverpool.

There is also a clear venue angle. Schade scored six of his eight Premier League goals last season at home, and he now gets the perfect opportunity to add to that tally at the Gtech Community Stadium. His pace, aerial ability and direct running make him particularly dangerous when Brentford can attack quickly.

Tottenham's expected high line under Roberto De Zerbi could play directly into Schade's hands. With defensive changes and potential absentees at the back, Spurs could leave space for Brentford's wide forwards to exploit, while Schade's ability to run in behind gives him a route to goal even if Brentford don't dominate possession.

Kevin Schade
Brentford v Tottenham [Anytime Goalscorer]
0.75pts
13/5

Hull vs Man UnitedSee All Odds

Bryan Mbeumo To Score Or Assist - 1pt

  • 57.01% ai probability
  • 50% odds implied
  • 14.02% expected value

1/1 with Paddy Power.

Mbeumo looks well suited to this matchup given his pre-season form, attacking role and expected volume of involvement. He has been among United’s most productive attackers in pre-season, scoring twice against Atlético Madrid, finding the net against PSG and registering an assist against Leeds.

That follows a productive first season at Manchester United, where he recorded 11 goals and three assists in 33 Premier League appearances. His combination of roughly 2.5 shots per 90 and regular chance creation gives him multiple routes to landing the goal or assist requirement.

His role is particularly encouraging. Mbeumo is expected to start from the right but will have licence to drift inside, shoot and combine with the striker. Against Hull, United should have plenty of possession and territorial pressure, meaning Mbeumo should see plenty of opportunities to get involved in the final third.

Bryan Mbeumo
Hull v Man Utd [To Score Or Assist]
1pt
10/11

Everton vs Crystal PlaceSee All Odds

Jorgen Larsen Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1.5pts

  • 63.85% ai probability
  • 57.14% odds implied
  • 11.74% expected value

3/4 with Star Sports. 

Looking at his end-of-season form, the Norwegian finished the campaign with a solid sequence of shot volumes: 1, 3, 1, 2, 2, 1, 2, 0, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1. That shows consistent involvement in the final third even when goals were harder to come by.

His shots-on-target tally over the same stretch (0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1) was more hit-and-miss, but he still managed to force a save in half of those games and never went long without testing the keeper for more than a couple of matches at a time.

After a distruptive season last season he now settles at Palace and I expect him to have a solid season, returning to the form of his 24/25 season where he bagged 14 goals.

Jorgen Larsen Over 0.5
Everton v Crystal Palace [Player Shots On Target]
1.5pts
3/4