EV Eagle picks out four value tips from tonight's football.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Last time out:
- Tyreece Campbell Over 1.5 Shots — 1pt - 11/10 - WON
- Will Lankshear Anytime Goalscorer — 1pt - 13/8 - LOST
- Camiel Neghli To Score Or Assist — 1pt - 21/10 - LOST
- Kyle Walker Over 1.5 Tackles — 1pt - 1/1 - VOID
- Cian Ashford Over 1.5 Shots — 1pt - 1/1 - LOST
Jason Kerr Over 0.5 Shots — 1pt
AI Probability: 70.10%
Odds Implied: 47.62%
Expected Value: +47.21%
Odds: 11/10 with Paddy Power
Jason Kerr Shots when starting: 1, 2, 0, 0
Jason Kerr is Hibernian's starting centre-back and a genuine set-piece threat, giving him a realistic route to at least one shot against Hearts in tonight's Edinburgh derby at Easter Road.
He has already shown his ability to contribute at the other end. Across his last two competitive games, Kerr has registered 3 shots, 2 of which were on target, and scored against Gent in the Conference League. In the Premiership, he has managed 1 shot on target in three starts.
At 1.88m (6ft 2in), Kerr provides an obvious target from corners and free-kicks, and Hibs are expected to use him in those situations again tonight.
The recent numbers aren't spectacular, but his set-piece role gives him a clear opportunity to get an attempt away. At 11/10, the AI probability of 70.10% is significantly higher than the 47.62% implied probability, making this one of the strongest value plays on the card.
Christ Tapé Over 0.5 Shots — 1pt
AI Probability: 60.20%
Odds Implied: 47.62%
Expected Value: +26.42%
Odds: 11/10
Christ Tapé Shots: 2, 2
Christ Tapé has made an encouraging start to life as Toulouse's left-back and his attacking role gives him a good opportunity to register at least one shot against Lille tonight.
The 22-year-old has taken 4 shots across his first two Ligue 1 starts, scoring once against Brest. At 1.88m (6ft 2in) and left-footed, Tapé is comfortable overlapping from deep or cutting inside, while Toulouse are using him as an attacking wing-back/full-back.
That role regularly gets him into the final third and around the edge of the box, giving him opportunities to shoot rather than simply relying on set pieces.
With two shots in each of his first two starts, Tapé is already demonstrating a willingness to get involved in the attacking phase. The AI gives him a 60.20% probability of registering a shot, compared with just 47.62% implied by the odds, making 11/10 an appealing price.
Orri Steinn Óskarsson Anytime Goalscorer — 1pt
AI Probability: 42.22%
Odds Implied: 39.22%
Expected Value: +7.66%
Best Price: 31/20
Orri Óskarsson Shots: 3, 3
Orri Óskarsson Expected Goals in his two starts (xG): 0.9, 0.98
Orri Steinn Óskarsson has made a strong start as Real Sociedad's centre-forward and looks a live candidate to find the net against Celta Vigo at Anoeta tonight.
He scored the winner against Espanyol last Saturday, with all three of his shots on target. Across his first three La Liga appearances this season, Óskarsson has registered 7 shots, 4 on target and 1 goal.
His underlying numbers are particularly encouraging. In his two starts, his xG has been 0.9 and 0.98, showing that he is consistently getting himself into high-quality goalscoring positions.
Celta have conceded four goals in three games and sit near the bottom of the table, while Óskarsson is a natural finisher who should get opportunities if Sociedad can maintain pressure at Anoeta.
The edge isn't huge, but the 42.22% AI probability is still above the 39.22% implied by the best odds, making 31/20 enough to warrant a 1pt play.
Jon Aramburu To Be Shown A Card — 1pt
AI Probability: 35.60%
Odds Implied: 26.67%
Expected Value: +33.50%
Best Price: 11/4 with Sky Bet
Jon Aramburu Fouls Committed: 8, 2, 5
We're hoping Jon Aramburu hasn't learned his lesson after picking up a yellow card in each of his first two games of the season, and his eight fouls in the third game suggest he probably hasn't.
The Venezuelan right-back picked up 11 yellow cards in 35 appearances last season, so there is plenty of precedent for him finding his way into the referee's book.
His recent disciplinary numbers are particularly appealing for this bet, with Aramburu committing 8, 2 and 5 fouls across his first three games. He now faces Javi Galán, who has already drawn plenty of attention from defenders, having committed 4 fouls in 129 minutes this season, 2.79 per 90.
That combination of Aramburu's aggressive defensive approach, his recent card history and the potential for a busy evening against Galán makes 11/4 look too big.
The AI gives Aramburu a 35.60% probability of being booked, compared with only 26.67% implied by the odds, producing a sizeable 33.50% expected value.
Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo Bet Builder Tip - 0.5pts
Jon Aramburu To Be Shown A Card
Orri Steinn Óskarsson Anytime Goalscorer
Best price 13/2.
