EV Eagle shares four standout betting tips for Monday's football action, after landing 2 from 4 on Sunday.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they are essentially putting a price on how likely they think an outcome is. The key for value bettors is finding situations where that price does not quite match the true probability of something happening.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available to Oddschecker+ subscribers, uses advanced AI to run 100 million projections every week while tracking 125 million live price changes each day. By doing so, it can spot bets where the probability of an outcome landing is higher than the bookmaker's odds suggest.
Here are the four best Positive EV bets selected by EV Eagle for Monday's matches.
TIP 1: Nemanja Gudelj - Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt
Best odds of 1/1 at Paddy Power at the time of writing.
Nemanja Gudelj over 0.5 shots looks like a straightforward volume play on the Sevilla midfielder, who has registered at least one effort in eight of his last 10 outings. For a player operating in a deeper midfield role, that is a particularly healthy hit rate and suggests getting a shot away is becoming a regular part of his game rather than something that needs to go his way.
His last 10 shot totals read 0, 5, 1, 1, 2, 2, 0, 0, 1 and 2. There have been a few blanks, but Gudelj has generally been able to find an effort, and his home record is even more encouraging. He has cleared the 0.5 line in four of his last five appearances at the Sánchez-Pizjuán.
If Sevilla dominate possession for periods on Monday, Gudelj should have opportunities to get forward and test the goalkeeper from range, making one shot a realistic target.
TIP 2: James Abankwah - To be Carded - 1pt
Best odds of 14/5 at Betway at the time of writing.
James Abankwah to be carded is a bet that makes sense when you look at both his early-season numbers and the referee taking charge. The Udinese defender has committed 1, 3 and 1 fouls across his three matches this season, with that approach already earning him a yellow card in the opening game against Como.
The appointment of Paride Tremolada only adds to the appeal. He averages 5.16 yellow cards per game across his Serie A matches and has handed out 21 yellow cards and three red cards across his last five games, showing just how willing he has been to punish players who overstep the mark.
Abankwah has already shown that he can find himself on the wrong side of the referee this season, and with Tremolada's recent card numbers suggesting a low threshold for punishment, another booking is certainly worth considering.
TIP 3: William Hondermarck - Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt
Best odds of 23/20 at 10bet at the time of writing.
William Hondermarck over 1.5 fouls is another bet built around a midfielder who is regularly involved in the physical side of the game. He has gone over 1.5 fouls in six of his last 10 matches, while his last 15 outings have produced foul counts of 2, 0, 3, 2, 1, 1, 2, 3, 3, 1, 0, 1, 3, 1 and 0.
His home numbers offer a similar picture. Across his last 10 matches at home, Hondermarck's foul totals are 0, 3, 2, 1, 3, 0, 1, 3, 2 and 1, meaning he has cleared this line in half of those appearances.
That is a reasonable platform for a line of just two fouls, particularly given the role Hondermarck plays in the middle of the pitch. He is regularly involved in challenges and physical duels, and that combative approach gives him plenty of opportunities to pick up a couple of fouls.
TIP 4: Jayden Stockley - Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt
Best odds of 11/10 at QuinnBet at the time of writing.
Jayden Stockley over 1.5 fouls comes with a smaller current-season sample, but what we have seen so far is encouraging. The AFC Wimbledon striker has cleared the line in two of his three appearances this season, while his last six matches overall have produced foul counts of 0, 2, 2, 1, 2 and 3.
That means Stockley has committed two or more fouls in four of his last six games, which is a strong return for a forward whose physical style often sees him competing in plenty of aerial and ground duels.
With Stockley still settling into his new side, his willingness to compete for every ball should continue to bring opportunities in this market. Two fouls is not an especially high bar for a player with his approach, making the 11/10 price an appealing one.
