Our best bets, bet builder tips, and prediction for the Brentford vs Chelsea game tonight.
West London derby tonight and the table is tight. Brentford are seventh on six points, unbeaten in the league (W D D D), and come in off a midweek cup win at Reading. Chelsea are sixth on seven points (W W L D), with ten scored and nine conceded and no Premier League clean sheet this season. The last four meetings at this ground have all finished level. This has all the makings of a top quality Friday night clash.
Brentford vs Chelsea Best Bets
Best bet: Draw at 14/5
Brentford are winless in five Premier League home games against Chelsea and the last four at the Gtech have all finished level (2-2, 0-0, 2-2 and another share of the points in that run).
Brentford are unbeaten in the league this season too but three of their four results are draws, and ten of their last 14 Premier League games have been drawn.
Chelsea sit sixth with seven points from a W W L D start, yet they have already shipped nine goals in four league matches and have no clean sheet. They have also been slightly shaky away from home.
This looks a pretty even match up.
Who is the favourite to win Brentford vs Chelsea?
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Brentford | 13/8 |
| Draw | 14/5 |
| Chelsea | 13/8 |
This is effectively a coin flip. Both sides are 13/8 on the best prices and the draw is 14/5. Over 2.5 is 8/15. Brentford are still unbeaten and Chelsea’s away form is thin, which is why the home price has shortened into matchday.
Brentford vs Chelsea Bet Builder Tips
1. Mamadou Sangare over 1.5 shots
Sangaré is Brentford's holding midfielder, but he is not a pure ball-winning midfielder. He has averaged 1.80 shots per 90 in the Premier League this season, with six shots from 302 minutes, and managed 1.97 shots per 90 at Lens last year.
He also averages close to 3.9 tackles per 90 - he wins the ball and looks to move it forward - there has been plenty of occasions this season where he has won it back on the edge of the box and either loked to shoot or create.
Chelsea are currently allowing more shots than the league average, while Brentford have attempted 38 shots in their two home games this season.
2. Vitaly Janelt over 2.5 tackles.
Janelt is expected to start in the defensive midfield slot. He has cleared 2.5 tackles in 3 of 3 (100%).
Chelsea play a very fast, direct, transitional style of football and Janelt will be tasked with stopping that first phase of play and so do Brentford. Brentford rank 5th for direct speed and Chelsea rank 6th. So there are going to be flying runs through the midfield all game so it could become an area of focus.
3. Michael Kayode over 0.5 fouls committed
This Chelsea attack is pacey and direct and not afraid to take their man on - they are all ranking n the top 20 Premier League players for average dribbles per game.
Kayode at some point will be taken on down the right side of Brentford's defence and with Palmer, Rogers and Joao Pedro (if fit) all ranking among their top four most fouled players this season, this matchup appeals.
Kayode has 2+ fouls in all three of his last three starts.
Brentford vs Chelsea Score Prediction
Brentford 1-1 Chelsea
The open game is still the right starting point. Chelsea have scored ten and conceded nine in four league matches, the softest defensive record in the current top nine, and they have not kept a Premier League clean sheet this season. Brentford are unbeaten with seven scored already and sit on a run where ten of their last 14 league games have been drawn. Chance volume should land at both ends, especially with Brentford missing centre backs Collins and van den Berg.
João Pedro has three goals and three assists in four league appearances, but the knee issue that took him out of Brazil duty is a live doubt and any replacement front line is a step down from that output. Caicedo is also a calf doubt, which matters for control in a derby that can turn messy. Palmer and Rogers still give Chelsea a final third threat, and Schade’s three goals in five for Brentford keep the home attack honest, but a Blues side without their sharpest forward is less likely to blow the doors off.
Venue history and away form close the argument for a home win. Brentford are winless in five Premier League home meetings with Chelsea and the last four at the Gtech finished level. Chelsea have managed one win in their last six league away games and have not posted an away clean sheet since early December. A narrow score draw is the cleanest read: both teams on the scoresheet, neither finishing the job. 1-1 is the prediction.
Brentford vs Chelsea Value Betting Tips
Brentford vs Chelsea Predicted Lineups
Brentford are without Collins, van den Berg, Dasilva, Milambo, Furo and Jensen. Chelsea have Friday calls on Caicedo, João Pedro, James and others, with nobody formally ruled out as of Thursday’s presser.
Brentford: Kelleher; Kayode, Schuster, Ajer, Lewis-Potter; Janelt, Sangaré; Ouattara, Damsgaard, Schade; Thiago
Chelsea: Sánchez; Fofana, Lacroix, Colwill; Neto, Caicedo, Lavia, Hato; Palmer, João Pedro, Rogers
