Denmark vs Wales best bets, odds and a three-leg bet builder for Sunday's 17:00 Nations League clash at Parken, plus our score prediction and lineups.
Both nations lost on the opening night of this Nations League A group, so Parken hosts a meeting of two sides on zero points with relegation already in view. Denmark shipped three in a 3-2 defeat in Oslo and have won just one of their last six. Wales were outshot 23-5 in Lisbon but lost only 1-0, and they're now winless in five. The finishing positions carry real weight: third means a relegation play-off and fourth means going straight down. Both squads are stretched too. Denmark are without Christensen, Bah, Dolberg and Eriksen, while Wales are missing Wilson, Rodon and Broadhead.
Denmark vs Wales Best Bets
Best bet: Wales +1 Asian Handicap at 21/20 (2.05)
This line wins if Wales avoid defeat, returns your stake if Denmark win by exactly one goal, and only loses if Denmark win by two or more. That last outcome is where the market has gone too far.
Wales rarely get beaten heavily. They've lost by two or more goals in only two of their last 15 internationals, and their two latest away defeats finished 0-1 in Portugal and 1-2 in Romania. Lisbon was the clearest example. They faced 23 shots, conceded only once and still had Brennan Johnson hitting the bar late on.
Denmark aren't in a state to put teams away. Their last six completed internationals produced one win, over North Macedonia, alongside a home draw with Belarus and defeats at Hampden and in Oslo. They also keep going behind early: they conceded inside 15 minutes against Scotland, Czechia and Norway. On top of the absentees, the goalkeeper spot is unsettled, and Højlund and Hjulmand had their minutes managed in Oslo with Portugal to come on Thursday.
The head-to-head is the main argument against. Denmark have won the last three meetings, including a 4-0 at Euro 2020, but that was a far stronger Danish side than this one. The one caveat is team news. If Bellamy's promised rotation strips out Ampadu, Ben Davies and Neco Williams together, the price no longer makes sense.
Who is the favourite to win Denmark vs Wales?
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Denmark | 1/2 |
| Draw | 19/5 |
| Wales | 13/2 |
Denmark are clear favourites at 1/2, which implies roughly a two-in-three chance of a home win. That's a steep price for a side that has won once in six games and has lost several senior players this week. Their home record is the case for it, with three wins and two draws in their last five competitive games at Parken and only three goals conceded. Wales are 13/2, and the draw at 19/5 would be the first in 12 meetings between these sides.
Denmark vs Wales Bet Builder Tips
1. Neco Williams over 0.5 shots
Williams starts at right-back and gets forward on the overlap. He has registered at least one shot in 10 of his last 19 games (52.6%), averaging 1.01 per game. Denmark concede 11.7 shots per game against a league average of 10.4, which gives an attacking full-back room to get forward.
2. Mikkel Damsgaard over 0.5 shots on target
Damsgaard starts on the left of Denmark's attack and scored in Oslo. He has hit the target in 7 of his last 13 games (53.8%), averaging 0.84 shots on target per game. Wales allow 4.7 shots on target per game against an average of 4.3, and he'll be running at the space Williams leaves behind when he attacks.
3. David Brooks over 1.5 fouls won
Brooks is projected on the right of Wales' attacking three and is their main ball carrier when they break. He has won two or more fouls in 8 of his last 14 games (57.1%), averaging 2.17 per game. Wales managed five shots in Lisbon, so they'll be playing on the counter again, and Brooks running with the ball through midfield is where the fouls come from.
Denmark vs Wales Score Prediction
Denmark 1-1 Wales
These nations have met 11 times without a draw, but the current form of both sides points towards one. Denmark have drawn three of their last six, including 0-0 with DR Congo and 2-2 at home to Belarus. Wales have drawn three of their last five, and all three finished 1-1. Neither side is winning often, and neither is losing heavily.
Denmark should have more of the ball and the better chances, with Højlund scoring in Oslo and Damsgaard dangerous from the left. Their defence is the weak point, though. They conceded ten goals in their last six games and have gone behind early in three of their last four big matches. Christensen's absence leaves a new-look centre-back pairing in front of a goalkeeper who hasn't secured the spot.
Wales have failed to score in three of their last ten games, all against stronger sides, and that is the main reason to doubt them. However, they've conceded more than once only three times in that run, and they caused Portugal problems late on in Lisbon despite having very little of the ball. With Denmark managing minutes ahead of Portugal on Thursday, the game could open up in the final half hour. A goal each is the prediction.
Denmark vs Wales Predicted Lineups
Denmark are without Christensen, Bah, Dolberg, Grønbæk, Eriksen, Mathias Jensen, Stage and Osula. Hjulmand and Isaksen are carrying knocks, and Jørgensen and Hermansen are competing for the goalkeeper spot. Wales are without Wilson, Darlow, Broadhead, Rodon, Lawlor, Colwill and Isaak Davies. Cabango is a doubt after going off in Lisbon, with Mepham ready to come in.
Denmark: Jørgensen; Kristensen, Andersen, Provstgaard, Mæhle; Højbjerg, Hjulmand, Frøholdt; Dorgu, Højlund, Damsgaard
Wales: Ward; N. Williams, Mepham, B. Davies, Dasilva; Ampadu, Jordan James; Brooks, Sheehan, Dan James; Johnson
Isaksen and Bidstrup are pushing for starts for Denmark. Sorba Thomas and Kieffer Moore are in contention for Wales after Bellamy said he'd freshen the side up. Lineups are predicted, not confirmed.
