Nations League Thursday Betting Tips: 6/1 Accumulator Bet

The UEFA Nations League returns with another round of fixtures on Thursday, and there are some interesting opportunities across the card. We've assessed the latest form, team news, and underlying numbers to pick out four sides worth backing in our 6/1 accumulator.

Norway to beat Wales 

Norway are the most convincing selection on the card and 8/15 looks a fair price for them to beat Wales in Cardiff.

Wales have failed to score in either of their first two League A games, losing 1-0 to Portugal and 2-0 to Denmark, while managing only four shots on target across the two matches. They are also winless in six and have lost seven senior players to injury, including Harry Wilson and Joe Rodon.

Norway, by contrast, have created 3.93 xG across their first two games, with Erling Haaland responsible for 1.86 of that. The striker has also scored in seven consecutive games for club and country. Norway's 2-1 defeat to Portugal on Sunday was harsh on the hosts, who actually produced 2.52 xG compared with Portugal's 1.04.

There isn't much value in the price, with 8/15 implying a 65% chance, but the evidence is remarkably consistent. Wales have shown very little attacking threat in this group and are now without some key players.

Norway to win @ 8/15 is the selection. The one concern is Norway's own injury doubts around Martin Ødegaard and Julian Ryerson, while Wales have drawn their last three at home.

Netherlands to beat Greece

The Netherlands are worth backing at 23/20 to beat Greece, with the Dutch offering a bigger price than Norway despite a similarly strong case on the underlying numbers.

Greece lead the group with six points, but their results have arguably been better than their performances. They beat Germany despite losing the xG battle 1.29-0.69, while their win in Serbia required a stoppage-time winner.

The Netherlands have been creating chances at an impressive rate under Xavi, generating close to 3 xG per game across their opening fixtures. They also have just one defeat in their last 22 matches inside 90 minutes.

There are some notable absences, with Cody Gakpo, Brian Brobbey, Frenkie de Jong, Mats Wieffer and Donyell Malen all unavailable. However, Meerdink scored twice in Belgrade and Van Bommel has already contributed in this campaign.

The head-to-head record also strongly favours the Dutch, who have won nine of the 11 meetings, including both Euro 2024 qualifying fixtures.

Netherlands to win @ 23/20 is the pick, although Greece's defensive record means this could be a frustrating night for the Dutch.

Portugal to beat Denmark

Portugal are worth backing at 11/10 to beat Denmark, although this is a considerably tighter call than the Norway and Netherlands selections.

Portugal have won both of their opening group games, beating Wales 1-0 before a 2-1 victory in Norway. They have conceded just once across those matches and have won four of their last five meetings with Denmark.

Denmark's squad has been hit by a number of absences, with seven players unavailable, including Andreas Christensen, Patrick Dorgu and Yussuf Poulsen. They are also playing their third game in eight days, which could become significant late on.

João Félix has scored in both of Jorge Jesus' games in charge, while Portugal also have plenty of attacking depth available from the bench.

The concern is their performance in Oslo. Norway had 22 shots to Portugal's 12 and won the xG battle 2.52-1.04, suggesting Portugal were fortunate to come away with all three points.

At 11/10, Portugal are priced around the 46% mark by the sharp market, so there isn't a huge edge in the odds. Portugal to win @ 11/10 is the selection, but Denmark's outstanding home record makes this one of the riskier bets on the card.