Wales vs Norway best bets, odds and a three-leg bet builder for Thursday's 19:45 Nations League clash in Cardiff, plus our score prediction and lineups.
Wales vs NorwaySee All Odds
Wales are bottom of Nations League A Group 4 with no points and no goals after defeats to Portugal and Denmark, and Craig Bellamy's side are now winless in six this year. Norway arrive in Cardiff on three points after beating Denmark 3-2 and then losing 2-1 to Portugal despite 22 shots and 2.52 xG. Erling Haaland has three goals in the competition already and 65 in 57 caps. Wales are without Harry Wilson, Joe Rodon and Nathan Broadhead, while Norway are sweating on Martin Ødegaard's ankle. Another defeat would leave Wales six points behind Norway with half the group played.
Wales vs Norway Best Bets
Best bet: Over 8.5 corners
Corners have been the most consistent trend in both teams' games. Sixteen of the last twenty matches involving these two sides produced nine or more corners, eight from ten for each team. Norway's last seven competitive games all went over the line, with totals of 9, 17, 10, 11, 11, 9 and 9. Wales games have averaged 11 corners over their last ten, and Norway games 10.4.
The match-up suits the bet. Norway like the ball, as their 62% possession against Portugal shows, and they play through wide areas with Nusa and Bobb attacking the full-backs. That pins Wales back and forces blocks and clearances behind. At home Wales tend to hit back through set pieces and crosses, and they won the corner count in each of their last five games in Cardiff.
The risk is a quiet game if Norway get an early lead, and Denmark against Wales on Sunday only had six corners. Even so, 4/5 implies about a 55% chance when the recent record for both sides is closer to 80%. This is the bet to stake heaviest on.
Who is the favourite to win Wales vs Norway?
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Wales | 11/2 |
| Draw | 18/5 |
| Norway | 8/15 |
Norway are clear favourites at 8/15, with 1/2 widely available. The price reflects the gap in form. Norway reached the World Cup quarter-finals and have won their last five competitive away games, while Wales have won none of their nine games against World Cup sides under Bellamy. Wales are 11/2 and the draw is 18/5. Norway have conceded in each of their last ten games, though, so Norway and both teams to score at 2/1 is a better way to back the favourite than the straight win.
Wales vs Norway Bet Builder Tips
1. Ben Davies over 0.5 fouls won
Davies starts at centre-back and brings the ball out from the back for Wales. He has won at least one foul in 8 of his last 14 appearances (57.1%), averaging 0.79 per game, and he won three against Denmark on Sunday. Norway press high to win the ball back, and Davies will be the first target when Wales try to play out.
2. Ethan Ampadu over 0.5 shots
Ampadu starts in central midfield and has had at least one shot in 8 of his last 11 appearances (72.7%), including both Nations League games. He averages 0.91 shots per game and arrives late on the edge of the box when Wales win second balls. Norway allow slightly fewer shots than average, so the matchup is not in his favour, but with Wilson out Wales need goals from elsewhere and Ampadu takes on more of that load. The price is too big for a player who shoots in nearly three quarters of his games.
3. Erling Haaland over 2.5 shots on target
Haaland leads the line and has hit the target three or more times in 8 of his last 16 appearances, averaging 2.63 shots on target per game. He managed four in each of Norway's two Nations League games, against Denmark and Portugal, and scored three goals across them. Wales allow fewer shots on target than average, but they faced 20 shots in Copenhagen and 23 in Portugal. Norway had 22 shots against Portugal on Sunday, and nearly everything goes through Haaland.
Wales vs Norway Score Prediction
Wales 1-2 Norway
Norway have much more quality in the final third. Ødegaard, Berge and Berg control midfield, and Nusa and Bobb provide pace either side of Haaland. Wales have faced 43 shots in their two Nations League games and conceded xG of 3.32, and that pressure is likely to continue in Cardiff.
Wales should score, though. They've scored in nine of their last ten home games, and Norway have conceded in every one of their last ten. Norway's goalkeeper Nyland was at fault against Portugal, and Wales will look to set pieces and crosses to trouble him.
Norway's wins tend to be close. Only two of their last ten games were won by two goals or more. Norway should win this by a goal, with Wales scoring a consolation.
Wales vs Norway Predicted Lineups
Wales: Ward; Roberts, Mepham, B Davies, N Williams; Ampadu, Sheehan; D James, Johnson, Thomas; Koumas
Norway: Nyland; Aursnes, Ajer, Heggem, Ryerson; Ødegaard, Berge, Berg; Bobb, Haaland, Nusa
Wales are without Harry Wilson, Karl Darlow, Nathan Broadhead, Joe Rodon, Dylan Lawlor, Rubin Colwill and Isaak Davies. David Brooks and Ben Cabango are doubts. Kieffer Moore could lead the line instead of Koumas, and Jay Dasilva and Jordan James are pushing to start. Norway are without Alexander Sørloth. Ødegaard has an ankle knock but is expected to play, and Ryerson is carrying a knock, so David Møller Wolfe could come in at full-back now that his suspension is over. Schjelderup is an option on the flank if Bobb misses out.
