France vs Italy best bets, odds and a three-leg bet builder for Friday's 19:45 Nations League clash at the Stade de France, plus our score prediction and lineups.
France vs ItalySee All Odds
Zinedine Zidane takes charge of France at home for the first time, with six points from two away wins in Nations League A Group 1. Both were 1-0, in Turkiye and Belgium, and both were goalless at half-time. Kylian Mbappé is out with a knee injury, so Désiré Doué comes in on the left alongside Michael Olise and Ousmane Dembélé. Italy are level on three points with Belgium after a 2-0 home defeat to Belgium and a 4-1 win in Turkiye. Roberto Mancini has Nicolò Barella back, but Giacomo Raspadori and Federico Dimarco are missing. France have won four of the last five meetings.
France vs Italy Best Bets
Best bet: Under 2.5 goals
Zidane's France have been tight rather than free-scoring. They have won both games 1-0, with xG of 1.17 and 1.22, and they have kept clean sheets in their last five wins. Both teams scored in only three of their last ten games, and six of those ten ended with a clean sheet for France. Without Mbappé, and with Marcus Thuram left out, France have no recognised number nine to finish their chances, so they rely on Dembélé and the wide players to score which is by no means a lack of fire power but isn't their first choice attack.
Italy are more solid than their results suggest. They kept five clean sheets in their last ten, and under 2.5 goals landed in six of those games. Mancini is still settling on his best side after making nine changes between the two Nations League games, and Italy will set up to stay compact rather than take on France in an open game.
The last five meetings all went over 2.5 goals, which is why the market makes overs such a short price. But the two sides have changed since then, and the current data points to a cagey game.
Who is the favourite to win France vs Italy?
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| France | 10/21 |
| Draw | 9/2 |
| Italy | 6/1 |
France are heavy favourites at 10/21. They reached the World Cup semi-finals, have won 13 of their last 16, and are unbeaten in six competitive home games. Italy are 6/1 after missing a third straight World Cup and losing at home to Belgium last week, and the draw is 9/2. The bigger question is the margin. France's two games under Zidane were won by a single goal, so France and under 2.5 at 4/1 is the better way to back the favourite.
France vs Italy Bet Builder Tips
1. Adrien Rabiot over 1.5 fouls committed
Rabiot starts in central midfield and has committed two or more fouls in 7 of his last 14 appearances (50%), averaging 1.84 per 90. He reached the line in five of his seven World Cup games, including four against Sweden. Italy's opponents commit 16.0 fouls per game against an average of 11.4. Barella and Tonali like to run beyond the midfield, so Rabiot will need to stop them, and referee Jesús Gil Manzano averages 24.7 fouls per game in LaLiga.
2. Nicolò Barella over 1.5 tackles
Barella starts in central midfield and has made two or more tackles in 6 of his last 13 appearances, averaging 1.45 per 90. He made two in 80 minutes against Belgium last week, and two the last time he faced France. France's opponents make 17.0 tackles per game against an average of 14.61. France have had 64% and 65% possession under Zidane, so Italy will spend much of the game defending, and Barella will be busy against Cherki and Rabiot.
3. Désiré Doué over 1.5 shots on target
Doué starts on the left in place of Mbappé and averages 2.02 shots on target per 90 for France. In games where he played 60 minutes or more he hit the line four times in six, including three against Norway at the World Cup and two in the full 90 against Belgium on Monday. Italy allow 6.4 shots on target per game against an average of 4.28, among the worst records of any side, and Belgium put eight on target in Rome last week.
France vs Italy Score Prediction
France 1-0 Italy
France have the better players across the pitch, with Olise involved in both of their Nations League goals so far and Dembélé captaining the side. Their defence is the strength of Zidane's team. Upamecano and Lacroix have barely been tested, and Italy failed to score at home to Belgium before their four goals in Turkiye.
Italy will have chances. They have scored in their last seven away games, and Pio Esposito has six goals in eleven caps. But France have allowed few opponents a clear sight of goal, and their last five wins all came with a clean sheet.
Both Zidane games were goalless at half-time, so a slow first half is likely. France should take control after the break, and a single goal from Olise or Dembélé should be enough to keep them top of the group.
France vs Italy Predicted Lineups
France: Maignan; Koundé, Upamecano, Lacroix, Truffert; Koné, Rabiot, Cherki; Olise, Dembélé, Doué
Italy: Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Scalvini, Bastoni, Calafiori; Barella, Tonali, Fagioli; Maldini, Pio Esposito, Kean
France are without Kylian Mbappé, Ibrahima Konaté, William Saliba, Warren Zaïre-Emery, Hugo Ekitiké, Jean-Philippe Mateta, Aurélien Tchouaméni and Théo Hernández, and Marcus Thuram was not selected. Pierre Kalulu could start at right-back, Maxence Lacroix and Jacquet are competing at centre-back, and Da Cunha is pushing Koné in midfield. Italy are without Giacomo Raspadori, Nicolò Zaniolo, Federico Dimarco, Bryan Cristante, Manuel Locatelli, Alessandro Buongiorno and Andrea Cambiaso. Gianluca Mancini could partner Bastoni instead of Scalvini, Michael Kayode is pushing at right-back, and Davide Frattesi could start in midfield. Gianluca Scamacca is also in contention to lead the line.
