Nations League Friday Betting Tips: 7/1 Accumulator Feat France vs Italy

The Nations League continues with another set of intriguing fixtures, and there are three bets to consider across Friday's card. From Montenegro's strong start to the campaign to Sweden's attacking threat and a potentially cagey clash between France and Italy, we've picked out three selections where the form and underlying numbers point towards a bet.

Montenegro to beat Latvia

Montenegro are the standout selection on Friday's card and 11/13 looks a fair price for the group leaders to beat Latvia.

Latvia have managed just 0.95 xG and one shot on target across their opening two games, while they have failed to score in each of their last three matches. They have also won only twice in their last 15 and just once in their last 10 at home.

Montenegro, meanwhile, have won both group games and generated 4.64 xG, including an impressive away victory in Armenia. They are unbeaten in their last four away games, winning three, and have never lost to Latvia in four previous meetings.

The visitors have also made the better start to the campaign, sitting top of the group on six points compared with Latvia's one.

Montenegro to win @ 11/13 is the pick. The main concern is that they have conceded in both group games, so a stubborn Latvia could make this closer than expected.

Sweden to beat Bosnia-Herzegovina

Sweden are worth a small-stakes punt at 8/5, but this is a much closer call than Montenegro.

The Swedes have won both of their Nations League games, beating Romania 2-1 and Poland 3-1, while generating 2.94 xG across the two matches. Viktor Gyökeres has scored in both and has found the net seven times in Sweden's last eight competitive appearances.

Bosnia have been similarly impressive, though, producing 2.90 xG across their opening two games and claiming an excellent 4-2 win in Romania. They have also lost just twice in their last 14 matches and only once in their last seven at home.

Sweden's defence is the concern. They have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 12 matches, while Alexander Isak and Emil Holm have also left the squad through injury.

There is enough attacking quality to make Sweden appealing at 8/5, but Bosnia's home record and strong underlying numbers mean this is one for smaller stakes rather than a confident play.

France vs Italy Under 3.5 goals

Zidane's France have been tight rather than free-scoring. They have won both games 1-0, with xG of 1.17 and 1.22, and they have kept clean sheets in their last five wins. Both teams scored in only three of their last ten games, and six of those ten ended with a clean sheet for France. Without Mbappé, and with Marcus Thuram left out, France have no recognised number nine to finish their chances, so they rely on Dembélé and the wide players to score.

Italy are more solid than their results suggest. They kept five clean sheets in their last ten, and under 2.5 goals landed in six of those games. Mancini is still settling on his best side after making nine changes between the two Nations League games, and Italy will set up to stay compact rather than take on France in an open game.