North Macedonia vs Scotland: Best Bets, Odds & Bet Builder Tip

The bottom two in Nations League B Group 1 meet in Skopje with neither side able to find the net. Scotland have gone four games without a goal, the last of them a 3-0 home defeat to Switzerland after Jack Hendry was sent off in the 11th minute. North Macedonia have gone six without scoring, a national record, and lost 3-0 at home to the Swiss and 2-0 in Slovenia. Sébastien Pocognoli is still looking for his first win as Scotland head coach, and Andy Robertson is set to win his 100th cap. Scotland are unbeaten in three meetings with North Macedonia since losing in Skopje in 2008.

North Macedonia vs Scotland Best Bets

Best bet: Both teams to score, No

Both teams scored in only four of these sides' last 20 matches combined. North Macedonia have managed two goals in their last ten games and drew a blank in eight of them. Their xG in this campaign is 0.06 against Switzerland and 0.68 in Ljubljana, and they had just two shots in the home defeat to the Swiss.

Scotland's away record is the other half of the case. They have lost only one of their last seven away games and kept five clean sheets in that run. Their own run of four games without a goal also lands a No. Neither attack has done enough lately to make goals at both ends the likely outcome in Skopje.

The risk is at the back. Hendry is suspended and Angus Gunn was criticised for two of the Swiss goals, while Goce Sedloski insists his side will not sit back. But North Macedonia have only beaten a goalkeeper twice in ten games, and backing a side with no goal in six to score against a defence that keeps clean sheets on the road makes little sense. 

Who is the favourite to win North Macedonia vs Scotland?

Scotland are 7/10 favourites, which implies about a 59% chance of an away win. North Macedonia are winless in ten and sit bottom of the group, so Scotland deserve to be favourites. That price still asks a lot of a side that has not scored in 422 minutes of football and has won only one of its last five games. The draw at 27/10 with AK Bets and IvyBet, or 13/5 with BOYLE Sports, Coral and Ladbrokes, makes sense in a game where neither attack has been functioning, but the goals markets are a stronger way to play it.

North Macedonia vs Scotland Bet Builder Tips

1. Oli McBurnie over 1.5 fouls committed

McBurnie starts up front and is the focal point of Scotland's direct game. He has committed two fouls in both of his games since returning to the squad, averaging 2.42 per 90, with two in 90 minutes in Slovenia and two in 59 minutes against Switzerland. Sedloski expects Scotland to play long balls into the box, which means McBurnie will spend the night contesting headers and backing into Visar Musliu and Mario Mladenovski. That makes fouls likely.

2. Matej Gashtarov to be shown a card at 12/5

Gashtarov starts at the base of the North Macedonia midfield alongside Jani Atanasov, and the teenager leads the side in Group 1 for tackles, interceptions and possession won. He was booked in one of his two senior appearances, five minutes after half time against Switzerland. Scotland's opponents pick up 3.67 yellows per game. His job tonight is to track John McGinn, who won five fouls against Switzerland and six in Slovenia. Referee François Letexier averages around four cards per game.

3. Lewis Ferguson over 2.5 fouls committed at 5/4

Ferguson starts in central midfield alongside Billy Gilmour and does most of Scotland's counter pressing. He has committed three or more fouls in eight of his last 17 appearances, averaging 2.88 per 90, and he made four in each of Pocognoli's first two games. At the World Cup he made two against Brazil and two against Morocco, and he made three against Bolivia in June. North Macedonia's opponents commit 12.7 fouls per game against a group average of 11.5. With Scotland expected to have most of the ball, Ferguson will be the man stepping in when Eljif Elmas tries to turn and run at the back three.

North Macedonia vs Scotland Score Prediction

North Macedonia 0-1 Scotland

North Macedonia offer very little going forward. They have scored twice in ten games, both of those goals came in matches against Kazakhstan and Wales last autumn, and their attack has looked weaker still under Sedloski. Bojan Miovski should start up front, but he has had very little service in this camp.

Scotland were far better than the scoreline suggested in Slovenia, where they had 17 shots and 2.16 xG, and the Swiss defeat tells us little after the early red card. Pocognoli has said he will make only a few changes, so the structure that created chances in Ljubljana should be back, with McBurnie and Kieron Bowie up front and McGinn behind them.

The goals will not come easily against a home side that has kept four clean sheets in its last ten games, but Scotland have more quality in the final third. A single goal, probably from a set piece or a cross aimed at McBurnie, looks the likeliest way this game is settled.

North Macedonia vs Scotland Predicted Lineups

North Macedonia: Dimitrievski; Stojchevski, Mladenovski, Musliu, Alomerovic; Atanasov, Gashtarov; Mitrovski, Bardhi, Elmas; Miovski

Scotland: Gunn; Welsh, McKenna, Binks; Hickey, Gilmour, Ferguson, Robertson; McGinn; Bowie, McBurnie

North Macedonia are without Ezgjan Alioski, who has a calf injury, and Boban Nikolov, who has withdrawn from the squad. Anes Meljichi is a doubt after taking a knock in Slovenia, so Musliu should come into the back four. Sedloski has promised two or three changes, and Bojan Ilievski, Gjoko Zajkov, Agon Elezi and Azer Omeragikj are all pushing for places. Scotland are without the suspended Jack Hendry, as well as Scott McTominay, Ché Adams, Kieran Tierney and Kenny McLean. Stephen Welsh comes into the back three, and Pocognoli has confirmed Gunn keeps his place in goal. Aaron Hickey returns after being rested, though Nathan Patterson could keep the right wing back role. Ben Gannon-Doak and Robbie Ure are the main options to come into the attack.