Scotland vs Slovenia best bets, odds and a three leg bet builder for tonight's 19:45 Nations League clash at Hampden, plus our score prediction and lineups.
Scotland vs SloveniaSee All Odds
Scotland and Slovenia meet for the second time in 11 days with second place in Nations League B Group 1 on the line. Both sides have four points behind runaway leaders Switzerland. Sébastien Pocognoli finally got his first win as Scotland boss in Skopje, where Kieron Bowie and John McGinn scored in a 2-0 victory over North Macedonia on Andy Robertson's 100th cap. Scott McKenna was sent off late and is suspended, but Jack Hendry returns from his own ban. Slovenia lost 2-1 in Luzern on Saturday and have never beaten Scotland in six attempts.
Scotland vs Slovenia Best Bets
Best bet: Both teams to score
Scotland's games have been low on goals at both ends. Both teams scored in just one of their last ten matches, a 4-1 friendly win over Curaçao in May, and they have kept clean sheets in two of their three Nations League games. The first meeting in Ljubljana finished 0-0 even though Scotland had 17 shots to Slovenia's four and created 2.16 xG to 0.47.
Slovenia have scored one goal or fewer in eight of their last ten games and failed to score in four of them. Even their goal in Switzerland came from an early chance, and they finished that game with 0.45 xG. With Andraž Šporar, Benjamin Verbič and Benjamin Šeško all missing, Žan Vipotnik carries the attack alone in a 5-4-1.
The risk is that Scotland have been leaky at Hampden, losing 3-0 to Switzerland and 1-0 to Japan, and both teams have scored in half of Slovenia's last ten games. Still, Scotland have kept four clean sheets in six meetings with Slovenia, and the visitors are set up to defend first.
Who is the favourite to win Scotland vs Slovenia?
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Scotland | 13/15 |
| Draw | 12/5 |
| Slovenia | 4/1 |
Scotland are 13/15 favourites with IvyBet, or 17/20 with Coral and Ladbrokes, which implies a home win chance of about 54%. That looks fair given how much they dominated the first meeting and the 3.45 xG they produced in Skopje. Slovenia are 4/1 with AK Bets, Sporting Index and Spreadex, and the draw is 12/5 with AK Bets and Unibet. Scotland's poor recent Hampden record is the main reason the price is not shorter.
Scotland vs Slovenia Bet Builder Tips
1. Sandi Lovrić over 1.5 fouls committed
Lovrić starts in central midfield for Slovenia and does a lot of the dirty work alongside Mark Zabukovnik. He has committed two or more fouls in five of his last ten appearances (50%), averaging 1.80 per game and 3.18 per 90. He made three fouls in 64 minutes in Luzern on Saturday, two in a ten minute cameo against Scotland last month and three against Croatia in June. Scotland's opponents commit 13 fouls per game against an average of 12.4. McGinn and McBurnie drift into the pockets either side of him, so Lovrić will be tracking runners and stopping turns all night.
2. Luis Binks over 0.5 fouls won
Binks starts on the left of Scotland's back three and has been one of the success stories of this camp. He won a foul against Switzerland and has won a foul in 17/20 of his last games all comps. Slovenia picked up five bookings in Luzern and commit more fouls than average in the Nations League. Scotland had 65% of the ball in Ljubljana, and Binks carries it forward from the back three, which invites Vipotnik and Aljoša Matko to step in and press.
3. Lewis Ferguson over 2.5 fouls committed
Ferguson starts in the middle of Scotland's midfield next to Billy Gilmour. He has committed three or more fouls in nine of his last 18 appearances (50%), averaging 2.67 per game and 2.88 per 90. He has hit the line in all three Nations League games, with three in Skopje, four against Switzerland and four in Ljubljana. Scotland committed 18 fouls in the first meeting and Ferguson had four of them. With Slovenia breaking through Danijel Šturm and Matko on transitions, he will have to stop counters.
Scotland vs Slovenia Score Prediction
Scotland 1-0 Slovenia
Scotland have been the better side in both of their competitive games against teams other than Switzerland in this window. They created 2.16 xG in Ljubljana and 3.45 xG in Skopje, with 25 shots and ten on target against North Macedonia. Bowie is now off the mark, and McGinn's late runs remain their best route to goal.
Slovenia will sit in a deep 5-4-1 and look to Jan Oblak, who made five saves in the first meeting. They scored first in Switzerland, but they lost control of that game quickly and managed only three shots on target all night.
Scotland vs Slovenia Predicted Lineups
Scotland: Gunn; Welsh, Hendry, Binks; Gannon-Doak, Ferguson, Gilmour, Robertson; McGinn, McBurnie; Bowie
Slovenia: Oblak; Karničnik, Drkušić, Bijol, Zec, Janža; Matko, Zabukovnik, Lovrić, Šturm; Vipotnik
Scotland are without Scott McKenna through suspension after his red card in Skopje. Jack Hendry is available again after serving his ban and is set to slot into the back three. Scott McTominay, Ché Adams, Kieran Tierney, Kenny McLean and Lawrence Shankland are all missing. Oli McBurnie was replaced at half time in North Macedonia, and Ryan Christie could start in his place, while Nathan Patterson and Aaron Hickey are pushing for the right wing back role. Findlay Curtis has been recalled. Slovenia boss Boštjan Cesar says his squad is fit, but Benjamin Šeško, Andraž Šporar and Benjamin Verbič are all out. David Brekalo and Tomi Horvat are options if Cesar changes shape.
