We’ve picked out six players whose recent foul numbers, combined with the tendencies of their likely opponents, make them particularly interesting betting angles this weekend.
Pascal Gross vs Sunderland Midfield
This Sunderland midfield keeps drawing fouls - defensive midfielders average 1.65 fouls per game against them.
DM fouls vs Sunderland: 2 , 1 , 0 , 3 , 0 , 2 , 1 , 2 , 3 , 3.
Fee (2.4 per 90) and Xhaka (1.7 per 90) rank top and second top for fouls won in this Sunderland side and Sadiki ranks fifth.
At this price it therefore makes sense to back a Brighton midfielder to foul and Gross looks like the value play.
He has committed 2+ fouls in 3 games this season and ha sonly failed to make a foul in two games this season.
Pascal Groß Fouls Committed: 1, 0, 2, 2, 2, 0, 1, 1.
Bet: Pascal Gross 2+ Fouls @10/3 - 1pt
Keane Lewis-Potter Fouls vs McGinn
Keane Lewis-Potter has committed 1, 1, 4, 2 and 1 fouls in his five Premier League games this season, and his nine fouls are joint-most in the Brentford squad. That's a big jump from last season, when he committed 0.68 fouls per 90. Now he's at left-back.
He comes up against John McGinn, who has won 4, 2, 2, 5 and 1 fouls in his five league games and leads Aston Villa for fouls won. McGinn has drawn two or more fouls in four of those five matches, averaging 2.90 per 90.
McGinn should start on Villa's right and Lewis-Potter at left-back, so they should be up against each other all afternoon. At 3/1 for two or more fouls, Lewis-Potter is an interesting player to target in the fouls market.
Bet: Keane-Lewis-Potter 2+ Fouls @3/1 -1pt
Evanilson Fouls vs Fofana
Evanilson has committed 2, 3, 0, 2 and 2 fouls in his last five Premier League games. That's two or more in four of the five, and only one Bournemouth player has committed more this season.
Wesley Fofana has won 0, 2, 2 and 2 fouls in his four league appearances. He ranks fourth at Chelsea for fouls won, and since that opening blank he has drawn two in every game.
Evanilson will be leading the line and Fofana as the right-sided centre-back, so they'll be in the same channel all afternoon. At 13/5, Evanilson looks worth a play.
Bet: Evanilson 2+ Fouls @ 13/5 - 1pt
Luke Shaw vs Kudus/Savio
Left backs average 1.3 fouls per game against Tottenham with three of the last five to face Spurs committing 3+ fouls (Kerkez, Nico Williams, Mesik).
Luke Shaw averages the third most fouls in this United side over the last 20 games and has 2+ fouls in 5 of his last 13 starts. This game has added importance with both sides punching well below their weight sitting in the bottom half of the table (Spurs are last) after 6 games and with both managers coming under scrutiny.
Mohammed Kudus Fouls Won: 2, 1, 1, 3, 0 - he averages 3.18 fouls won per 90.
Sávio has won 2+ fouls in 3 of his last four starts.
Bet: Luke Shaw 2+ Fouls @ 12/5 - 1pt
Dan Ndoye Fouls vs Wharton & Timber
Dan Ndoye has committed 2, 1, 2, 3 and 0 fouls in his last five Premier League games. He's reached two or more in three of them, averages 2.28 per 90 and is second at Forest for fouls committed. He hasn't completed 75 minutes in any of those games, so he gets through a lot of work in his time on the pitch.
Adam Wharton has won exactly two fouls in each of his five league games and leads Crystal Palace for fouls won. Quinten Timber has won 2, 2 and 2 in his three appearances.
Bet: Dan Ndoye 2+ Fouls @ 9/4 - 1pt
Harry Maguire Fouls vs Marmoush
Harry Maguire has committed 0, 2, 2, 3 and 0 fouls in his last five Premier League games. That's two or more in three of them, and he's picked up two yellow cards. Nobody at Manchester United has committed more fouls this season.
Omar Marmoush has won one foul in each of his four league games for Tottenham. Last season he drew 2.70 fouls per 90 at Manchester City.
The predicted lineups have Marmoush either up front or on the left, and either way he ends up on Maguire's side.
Bet: Harry Maguire 2+ Fouls @ 16/5 - 1pt
