The EV Eagle is back with four value bets for Thursday's Europa League action.
Thursday's Europa League action features another exciting round of fixtures, and Oddschecker's EV Eagle has identified four selections offering positive expected value.
Our AI-powered betting model analyses thousands of data points to identify bets where the predicted probability of an outcome is higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker's odds.
EV Eagle's Europa League Bets for Thursday
Wouter Burger Over 1.5 Shots vs Beşiktaş
Quinten Timber Over 1.5 Fouls vs Lyon
Mahdi Camara Over 0.5 Shots on Target vs OFI Crete
Marcus Tavernier Anytime Goalscorer vs Sturm Graz
Wouter Burger Over 1.5 Shots vs Beşiktaş
Best odds of 11/10 with Coral/Ladbrokes. 1pt stake advised.
Hoffenheim midfielder Wouter Burger has developed an impressive shooting record in recent weeks, making him an appealing selection to register at least two attempts against Beşiktaş in Thursday's Europa League encounter.
The Dutchman has recorded two or more shots in seven of his last ten appearances across all competitions, including each of his last four matches.
Burger was particularly impressive in Hoffenheim's Europa League opener against OFI Crete, registering five shots, with two finding the target, despite his side suffering a 2-0 defeat.
He has maintained that attacking involvement domestically, registering two shots against Stuttgart, Paderborn and Hamburger SV in his three most recent Bundesliga appearances.
That gives the 25-year-old 11 shots across his last four matches, averaging 2.75 attempts per game, an impressive return for a central midfielder.
Hoffenheim's attacking numbers provide further encouragement. Christian Ilzer's side are averaging 17.7 shots per match across their last ten competitive fixtures, rising to 18.4 in their last five home games.
The opposition also offers an interesting angle. Despite beating Marseille 4-1 in their Europa League opener, Beşiktaş allowed the French side 14 shots, demonstrating that their defence can still be tested despite a positive result.
With Burger registering at least two shots in four consecutive appearances, the 11/10 available looks an attractive price. Oddschecker's EV Eagle model gives the selection a 60.8% probability of landing, considerably higher than the 47.6% implied by the odds.
Quinten Timber Over 1.5 Fouls vs Lyon
Best odds of 23/20 with Coral/Ladbrokes. 1pt stake advised.
Crystal Palace midfielder Quinten Timber has developed an impressive record for committing fouls this season, making him an appealing selection to concede at least two free kicks against Lyon in Thursday's Europa League encounter.
The Dutch international has committed two or more fouls in five of his six appearances for Crystal Palace this season, including three in Sunday's 3-1 victory over Nottingham Forest.
Timber has also registered two fouls against Fulham, Leeds United and Middlesbrough domestically, while committing another two in Palace's 4-0 Europa League victory over Lech Poznań.
His defensive involvement has been significant since joining the Eagles, averaging 1.75 fouls and 3.25 tackles per game across his four Premier League appearances this campaign.
The matchup against Lyon provides further encouragement. The French side have drawn an average of 13.1 fouls per game this season, with their matches regularly featuring plenty of physical challenges.
With Timber expected to operate in a central midfield role alongside Adam Wharton, he could be tasked with breaking up Lyon's attacking transitions and protecting Palace's defence.
Given Timber's consistent foul record and Lyon's ability to draw challenges, the 23/20 available with Ladbrokes looks an interesting price. Oddschecker's EV Eagle model gives the selection a 53.6% probability of landing, compared with the 46.5% implied by the odds.
Mahdi Camara Over 0.5 Shots on Target vs OFI Crete
Best odds of 23/20 with Coral/Ladbrokes. 1pt stake advised.
Rennes midfielder Mahdi Camara has demonstrated impressive shooting consistency heading into Thursday's Europa League clash against OFI Crete, making him an appealing selection to register at least one shot on target.
The 28-year-old has recorded a shot on target in six of his last ten appearances, including four of his last five starts across Ligue 1 and the Europa League.
Camara has demonstrated his willingness to shoot in European competition, registering two attempts, including one on target, in Rennes' goalless draw against Sturm Graz in September.
OFI Crete have conceded an average of 17.3 shots per match across their three Europa League fixtures this season, including 21 against Hoffenheim and 19 against CSKA Sofia.
The Greek side have also allowed opponents an average of 4.7 shots on target across their opening six domestic league matches.
Rennes are averaging 6.2 shots on target per game in Ligue 1 this season and registered 21 attempts, including 11 on target, in Sunday's emphatic 4-1 victory over Auxerre.
With Camara's consistent shooting involvement and OFI regularly allowing opponents opportunities, the 23/20 available with Ladbrokes looks an attractive price. Oddschecker's EV Eagle model gives the selection a 58.5% probability of landing, comfortably above the 46.5% implied by the odds.
Marcus Tavernier Anytime Goalscorer vs Sturm Graz
Best odds of 7/4 when publishing. 1pt stake advised.
Bournemouth attacker Marcus Tavernier has been one of the Cherries' standout performers this season, making him an appealing anytime goalscorer selection against Sturm Graz in Thursday's Europa League encounter.
The 27-year-old has scored three Premier League goals this campaign, finding the net against Manchester City, Newcastle and Brentford.
His underlying attacking numbers are encouraging, with Tavernier registering 13 shots across four early-season league matches, including five against Newcastle and four against Brentford.
Sturm Graz conceded 23 shots, including five on target, in their opening Europa League fixture against Rennes, with the French side accumulating approximately 1.8 xG despite the match finishing goalless.
Bournemouth began their European campaign with an impressive 2-1 victory away to Real Sociedad and will be looking to build on that result in their first European home fixture.
With Tavernier expected to operate in an advanced attacking role behind Evanilson, he should have opportunities to exploit Sturm Graz's defence.
The 7/4 available with bet365 looks worth considering, with Oddschecker's EV Eagle model giving Tavernier a 37.8% probability of scoring, slightly above the 36.4% implied by the odds.
