The EV Eagle has identified five positive value bets for Sunday, with selections across four Premier League games and Real Madrid v Sevilla in La Liga.
Sunday brings a four-game Premier League card and a big night in Madrid, and Oddschecker's EV Eagle has picked out five selections that offer positive expected value.
The EV Eagle model compares its own estimate of how likely an outcome is with the probability implied by the bookmakers' odds, and it highlights the bets where the model gives a better chance than the price suggests. We've selected five of its best value bets for Sunday, 18 October, covering player fouls, shots on target, anytime goalscorer and a match result and both teams to score bet.
EV Eagle's Best Value Bets for Sunday
| EV Eagle Bets | Best Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Reinildo Mandava - Over 1.5 Fouls Committed | 13/10 | Coral |
| Charalampos Kostoulas - Over 1.5 Shots on Target | 11/4 | bet365 |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin - Over 1.5 Shots on Target | 7/4 | Coral |
| Bukayo Saka - Anytime Goalscorer | 21/10 | bet365 |
| Real Madrid - Match Result & Both Teams To Score | 13/8 | Ladbrokes |
TIP 1: Reinildo Mandava Over 1.5 Fouls Committed vs Bournemouth
Best odds of 13/10 with Coral.
1pt advised stake.
Reinildo Mandava has committed two or more fouls in three of his six Premier League games this season, with his fouls committed reading 0, 0, 3, 0, 3 and 2. That works out at 1.30 fouls per 90 minutes, which is below this line, so the bet is about the matchup rather than his season average.
The matchup is a difficult one for the Sunderland left-back. Bournemouth's Rayan, who scored five goals in 13 league starts after joining from Vasco da Gama in January, is expected to start in Bournemouth's attacking line, and he missed a couple of good chances in the first half of last weekend's 5-1 defeat at Chelsea.
Sunderland are also short at the back, with Dan Ballard and Thomas Meunier out, and they travel to the south coast after a Thursday night trip to Portugal for their Europa League win at Torreense. A tired, depleted defence facing a quick attacker is the kind of matchup that can produce fouls.
TIP 2: Charalampos Kostoulas - Over 1.5 Shots on Target vs Crystal Palace
Best odds of 11/4 with bet365.
1pt advised stake.
Charalampos Kostoulas has cleared this line in two of his three home starts this season, including against Arsenal, and his shots on target across seven appearances read 0, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1 and 2. He has already scored two league goals and leads the line for a Brighton side that has scored a league-high 18 goals in six games.
Brighton are third in the table with 13 points and have won their last three league games, scoring 10 goals without conceding. Palace sit 12th and have faced a league-high 108 shots, and no Premier League team has allowed more expected goals.
Pierre Sage's team lost 3-2 at Lyon on Thursday, and Axel Disasi is suspended and Chadi Riad is out, with Takehiro Tomiyasu and Dean Henderson doubts. Kostoulas carried a slight hand complaint into the week and missed Brighton's Conference League game, but he is not on the absence list and is projected to start.
TIP 3: Dominic Calvert-Lewin - Over 1.5 Shots on Target vs Manchester United
Best odds of 7/4 with Coral.
1pt advised stake.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin has had two or more shots on target in two of his last six games, with his shots on target this season reading 0, 1, 2, 2, 1 and 0. He cleared this line in Leeds' 2-1 win at Old Trafford last season, and he leads the line for a side that is unbeaten at Elland Road in the Premier League this year.
Leeds are seventh with nine points and have drawn 1-1 with Brentford, beaten Newcastle 4-1 and drawn 0-0 with Palace at home. They go into the game as favourites against United for the first time in Premier League history, and they have not lost at Elland Road this season.
United are 13th with six points and have one league win, and Michael Carrick is without Benjamin Sesko, Patrick Dorgu and Manuel Ugarte, with Kobbie Mainoo, Luke Shaw and Noussair Mazraoui doubts. A depleted back line facing a physical focal point gives Calvert-Lewin a route to two efforts on target.
TIP 4: Bukayo Saka Anytime Goalscorer vs Nottingham Forest
Best odds of 21/10 with bet365.
1pt advised stake.
Bukayo Saka has scored three goals this season, and his shots on target across seven games read 1, 1, 3, 1, 3, 1 and 1, which means he has hit the target in every one. He has five goal involvements in six Premier League appearances against Forest, and he was named on the bench against Lille because of a minor illness before coming on to score and assist in a 3-0 win.
He is expected to start at the City Ground, and Forest are in poor form defensively. They have conceded five goals in their last three games and have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of them, and they have yet to win at home this season.
Morgan Gibbs-White, who has created 17 chances in the league this season, is a doubt with a minor muscle problem, which would take away their main creative outlet. Arsenal are 4/6 favourites, Forest are 5/1, and with Saka, Ødegaard and Havertz all due to return, Saka looks the most likely route to a goal.
TIP 5: Real Madrid Match Result & Both Teams To Score vs Sevilla
Best odds of 13/8 with Ladbrokes.
1pt advised stake.
Over 2.5 goals has cleared in five of Real Madrid's last six games, and both teams to score has hit in five of their last six. Four of their last five wins have included a goal for the opposition, which is the profile this bet needs, and they will be without the suspended Vinicius Junior.
Jose Mourinho's side beat Roma 4-3 in the Champions League in midweek, scoring four but conceding three, and they have won their last four home league games. Sevilla have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last three games, and both teams to score has hit in eight of their last 10.
Sevilla are 14 points from eight games, have conceded 12 goals in the league and have scored in every league fixture so far.
