EV Eagle shares five top betting angles for Monday's Football action across Europe.
Monday brings a Premier League clash at Tottenham, a Madrid derby at the Coliseum and a Serie A fixture at the Tardini. Oddschecker’s EV Eagle has picked out five selections that offer positive expected value.
The EV Eagle model compares its own estimate of how likely an outcome is with the probability implied by the bookmakers’ odds, and it highlights the bets where the model gives a better chance than the price suggests. We’ve selected five of its best value bets for Monday, 19 October, covering player tackles, shots, shots on target, cards and fouls committed.
EV Eagle’s Best Value Bets for Monday
| EV Eagle Bets | Best Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Jan Paul van Hecke - Over 1.5 Tackles | 11/10 | Skybet |
| Taiwo Awoniyi - Over 1.5 Shots on Target | 9/2 | bet365 |
| Pedro Díaz - Over 1.5 Shots | 4/5 | Coral |
| Mario Martín - To Be Shown A Card | 2/1 | Paddy Power |
| Rolando Mandragora - Over 1.5 Fouls Committed | 6/4 | Coral |
Odds last updated at 12PM Monday, 19th October 2026.
TIP 1: Jan Paul van Hecke Over 1.5 Tackles vs Coventry
Best odds of 11/10 with Sky Bet.
1pt advised stake.
- AI Probability: 52.0%
- Odds Implied: 47.6%
- Expected Value: 9.1%
Jan Paul van Hecke has cleared this line in four of his last seven starts, with his tackles reading 1, 3, 2, 1, 2, 1 and 2. He has started all six of Spurs’ Premier League games and played every minute, making 11 league tackles at 1.8 per 90.
The matchup should keep him busy. Omar Cherif likes to run in behind, and Coventry will look to hit Spurs on the break. Van Hecke will be the man tasked with dealing with it.
TIP 2: Taiwo Awoniyi Over 1.5 Shots on Target vs Tottenham
Best odds of 9/2 with bet365.
1pt advised stake.
Taiwo Awoniyi has had two or more shots on target in one of his four games this season, with his shots on target reading 0, 0, 2 and 1. The price is the draw here, and it is more about Spurs than his own numbers.
Opposing strikers have registered 2, 2, 1, 1 and 0 shots on target against Tottenham in their last five games. Three of those five cleared one, and two reached the two Awoniyi needs.
Coventry have been on the up, and Spurs have struggled at home for a long time now. At 9/2 the bet only needs Awoniyi to get there around one game in five.
TIP 3: Pedro Díaz - Over 1.5 Shots vs Getafe
Best odds of 4/5 with Coral.
1pt advised stake.
- AI Probability: 61.1%
- Odds Implied: 55.6%
- Expected Value: 10.0%
Pedro Díaz has taken two or more shots in seven of his last ten starts, with his shots reading 3, 5, 2, 0, 2, 2, 1, 2, 0 and 4. He has cleared this line in all three of his league starts this season, including five shots at the Bernabéu.
He has 12 La Liga shots in just 322 minutes, which works out at 3.4 per 90. That is a lot of volume from a central midfielder.
Getafe have given up 10, 11 and 16 shots in three of their four home league games, which leaves plenty of room for a midfielder shooting this often.
TIP 4: Mario Martín To Be Shown A Card vs Getafe
Best odds of 2/1 with Paddy Power.
1pt advised stake.
- AI Probability: 35.0%
- Odds Implied: 33.3%
- Expected Value: 5.0%
Mario Martín has been carded in four of his last ten starts, with his cards reading 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0 and 1. That includes a sending-off for two yellows at Betis last month, and he has three cards in five La Liga starts this term.
The fouls back it up. He has committed ten in 423 league minutes, or 2.1 per 90, and made two or more in four of his five league starts.
The setting helps too. This is a Madrid derby against Bordalás’s Getafe, who average three yellows and 14 fouls a La Liga game. Jon Ander González Esteban has the whistle, and he showed nine yellows when Getafe went to Osasuna in August.
TIP 5: Rolando Mandragora - Over 1.5 Fouls Committed vs Parma
Best odds of 6/5 with Coral.
1pt advised stake.
Rolando Mandragora averages 1.48 fouls committed per 90 over his last ten games, which sits just under this line. His fouls this season read 1, 1, 0 and 2, and over his last six games they read 1, 2, 1, 1, 0 and 3. The case rests on the opposition.
Parma allow 59.4% more fouls than the league average, 16.7 against 10.5. That makes this the easier matchup for a midfielder whose own numbers are already close to the mark.
