EV Eagle's five best value bets for Saturday, from Man City vs Brighton, Millwall vs Derby, Bologna vs Monza and Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim.
Saturday’s football features Man City vs Brighton in the Premier League, Millwall vs Derby in the Championship, Bologna vs Monza in Serie A and Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga. Oddschecker’s EV Eagle has picked out five selections that offer positive expected value.
The model compares its own probability for each outcome with the probability implied by the bookmakers’ odds. We’ve selected five of its best value bets for Saturday, 31 October 2026, covering player shots, player fouls and anytime goalscorer markets.
EV Eagle’s Best Value Bets for Saturday
| EV Eagle Tips | Best Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Diego Gómez Over 1.5 Shots | 1/1 | Star Sports |
| Bobby Clark Over 1.5 Shots | 1/1 | Coral |
| Lewis Ferguson Over 1.5 Fouls | 1/1 | Coral |
| Niclas Füllkrug Anytime Goalscorer | 13/10 | Unibet |
| Ozan Kabak Over 1.5 Fouls | 1/1 | Betway |
Odds last updated at 09:00 Saturday, 31 October 2026.
TIP 1: Diego Gómez Over 1.5 Shots vs Man City
Best odds of 1/1 with Star Sports.
1pt advised stake.
- AI Probability: 67.3%
- Odds Implied: 50.0%
- Expected Value: 34.7%
Gómez Shots, last 10 starts: 1, 2, 1, 4, 0, 2, 4, 5, 4, 3
He’s had two or more shots in seven of his last ten starts and averages 2.68 shots per 90 in the Premier League.
With Kaoru Mitoma, Evan Ferguson and Stefanos Tzimas all out, even more of Brighton’s attack runs through him, and he’s in the predicted XI.
City allow 11.0 shots a game, but Brighton take 17.8 a game themselves and won’t sit in.
Evens is too big for a midfielder this involved.
TIP 2: Bobby Clark Over 1.5 Shots vs Millwall
Best odds of 1/1 with Coral.
1pt advised stake.
- AI Probability: 62.7%
- Odds Implied: 50.0%
- Expected Value: 25.4%
Clark Shots, last 10 starts: 3, 3, 5, 2, 3, 3, 1, 1, 1, 5
He’s had two or more shots in seven of his last ten starts, including the last six in a row. He scored at Sheffield United last weekend and averages 2.70 shots per 90 in the Championship.
He’s in the Derby XI again. With ten players on the injury and suspension list, much of their attacking work falls to him from midfield.
Millwall allow 13.0 shots a game and have conceded 20 in 12 league games.
Evens, with him on a run of six straight, is a fair price.
TIP 3: Lewis Ferguson Over 1.5 Fouls vs Monza
Best odds of 1/1 with Coral.
1pt advised stake.
- AI Probability: 65.7%
- Odds Implied: 50.0%
- Expected Value: 31.5%
Ferguson Fouls Committed, last 10 starts: 3, 4, 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 4, 3, 3
He’s committed two or more fouls in eight of his last ten starts, for Bologna and Scotland. That includes three at Milan on Wednesday and four at Cagliari the week before.
In Serie A he commits 2.44 fouls per 90 and wins only 1.22, so he’s firmly on the giving end. He’s played 90 minutes in each of his last 12 starts and is in the predicted XI again.
Bologna commit 13.1 fouls a game as a team, and Monza have conceded 22 goals in nine league games, so they’ll be pressed hard and often.
TIP 4: Niclas Füllkrug Anytime Goalscorer vs Hoffenheim
Best odds of 13/10 with Unibet.
1pt advised stake.
- AI Probability: 51.9%
- Odds Implied: 43.5%
- Expected Value: 19.3%
Füllkrug Goals, last 8 starts: 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1
He’s scored in seven of his eight starts this season and in each of his last six Bundesliga starts. That includes braces against Paderborn and Mainz in his last two. He has eight league goals at 1.27 per 90 and puts 2.70 shots on target per 90.
He also came off the bench to score twice at Dortmund in the cup on Tuesday, so the form is red hot, and he leads the line in the predicted Bremen XI.
Hoffenheim have conceded 14 in their last seven league games. They’re also without Albian Hajdari and the suspended Alexander Prass.
13/10 on a striker scoring in seven of eight starts is the standout price of the day.
TIP 5: Ozan Kabak Over 1.5 Fouls vs Werder Bremen
Best odds of 1/1 with Betway.
1pt advised stake.
- AI Probability: 62.8%
- Odds Implied: 50.0%
- Expected Value: 25.6%
Kabak Fouls Committed, last 10 starts: 3, 4, 5, 1, 1, 3, 3, 3, 1, 2
He’s committed two or more fouls in seven of his last ten starts, and in each of his last three he committed three, four and five. In the Bundesliga he commits 2.50 fouls per 90 and wins just 0.33.
He’s in the predicted Hoffenheim back line and should spend the afternoon on Füllkrug, a striker in this kind of form.
Hoffenheim commit 13.4 fouls a game as a team, and Bremen win 10.6 a game.
Evens on a defender with this foul rate is a good bet.
