EV Eagle's five best value bets for Friday night's football, including Derby vs Bolton and Hamburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Friday night’s action features Venezia vs Udinese, Derby vs Bolton, Toulouse vs Strasbourg and Hamburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach. Oddschecker’s EV Eagle has picked out five selections that offer positive expected value.
The model compares its own probability for each outcome with the probability implied by the bookmakers’ odds. We’ve selected five of its best value bets for Friday, 6 November 2026, covering player shots, shots on target and tackles markets.
EV Eagle’s Best Value Bets for Friday
| EV Eagle Tips | Best Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Jurgen Ekkelenkamp Over 1.5 Shots | 10/11 | Betway |
| Carlton Morris Over 0.5 Tackles | 20/21 | BOYLE Sports |
| Gessime Yassine Over 1.5 Shots | 17/20 | Bet Victor |
| Sam Dalby Over 0.5 Shots On Target | 4/5 | William Hill |
| Zakaria El Ouahdi Over 1.5 Tackles | 8/11 | BetMGM UK |
Odds last updated at 09:45 Friday, 6 November 2026.
TIP 1: Jurgen Ekkelenkamp Over 1.5 Shots vs Venezia
Best odds of 10/11 with Betway.
1pt advised stake.
- AI Probability: 60.2%
- Odds Implied: 52.4%
- Expected Value: 15.0%
Ekkelenkamp Shots, last 10 starts: 0, 2, 1, 1, 5, 5, 2, 2, 3, 2
He’s had two or more shots in seven of his last ten starts and averages 2.43 shots per 90 in Serie A. He had five against both Torino and Cagliari earlier this season.
He blanked in 56 minutes against Roma last Saturday, but the volume before that is hard to ignore. He’s in Udinese’s predicted XI.
Venezia have allowed 16.5 shots a game in Serie A and conceded 20 in ten league matches.
10/11 on a midfielder this busy against this defence is a good price.
TIP 2: Carlton Morris Over 0.5 Tackles vs Bolton
Best odds of 20/21 with BOYLE Sports.
1pt advised stake.
- AI Probability: 67.6%
- Odds Implied: 51.3%
- Expected Value: 31.8%
Morris Tackles, last 10 starts: 2, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1
He’s made at least one tackle in seven of his last ten starts. He averages 0.84 tackles per 90, which is enough to sell this line.
He started Derby’s last game.
Bolton have drawn 9.5 fouls a game in the Championship and give plenty of opportunities for a striker to get stuck in.
20/21 is a big price for a player who clears this more often than not.
TIP 3: Gessime Yassine Over 1.5 Shots vs Toulouse
Best odds of 17/20 with Bet Victor.
1pt advised stake.
- AI Probability: 65.2%
- Odds Implied: 54.1%
- Expected Value: 20.7%
Yassine Shots, last 10 starts: 4, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0, 2, 2, 3, 2
He’s had two or more shots in six of his last ten starts for Strasbourg and Morocco. He averages 1.76 shots per 90 in Ligue 1 and had four against Auxerre on Sunday, scoring twice.
He’s in Strasbourg’s predicted XI. Toulouse allow 13.8 shots a game in Ligue 1.
17/20 on a winger this involved is a solid price.
TIP 4: Sam Dalby Over 0.5 Shots On Target vs Derby
Best odds of 4/5 with William Hill.
1pt advised stake.
- AI Probability: 57.7%
- Odds Implied: 55.6%
- Expected Value: 3.8%
Dalby Shots On Target, last 10 starts: 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0
He’s hit the target in seven of his last ten starts and scored in four of his last nine, including against Charlton on Tuesday and Bristol City last Saturday. He averages 0.87 shots on target per 90.
He led the line in Bolton’s last game.
Derby have conceded 12 goals in five Championship games and allow 8.2 shots on target a game.
4/5 on a striker this consistent in front of goal is fair.
TIP 5: Zakaria El Ouahdi Over 1.5 Tackles vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
Best odds of 8/11 with BetMGM UK.
1pt advised stake.
- AI Probability: 60.3%
- Odds Implied: 57.8%
- Expected Value: 4.2%
El Ouahdi Tackles, last 10 starts: 6, 3, 4, 5, 0, 1, 6, 1, 2, 2
He’s made two or more tackles in seven of his last ten starts, including six against Eintracht Frankfurt in the cup and five against Köln. He averages 2.57 tackles per 90.
He’s in Hamburg’s predicted XI.
8/11 is short, but his tackle rate makes him a favourite to clear this line.
