EV Eagle shares five best betting angles for Saturday's football action.
EV Eagle returns for Saturday's card, covering five fixtures across the Premier League and Championship. Mohamed Belloumi travels to Arsenal, Erling Haaland visits a struggling Nottingham Forest, Will Lankshear heads to Watford after a mid-week injury scare, Jake Cooper's Millwall host West Brom, and Joe Willock makes the trip to Craven Cottage with Newcastle. Here are the five selections.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
Bookmakers price up markets based on their own estimate of how likely each outcome is. Positive EV betting identifies prices where the probability implied by the odds is lower than the real likelihood of the event occurring, using recent form, shot data and trend analysis to find gaps the market hasn't closed.
EV Eagle Betting Tips
| EV Eagle Tips | Best Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Belloumi - Over 1.5 Shots | 11/10 | BetVictor |
| Erling Haaland - Over 1.5 Shots On Target | 11/10 | Coral |
| Amario Cozier-Duberry To Score Or Assist | 3/4 | Betway |
| Jake Cooper - Over 0.5 Shots | 11/10 | Ladbrokes |
| Joe Willock - Over 1.5 Shots | 5/6 | BetVictor |
TIP 1: Mohamed Belloumi Over 1.5 Shots — 1pt
Best odds: 11/10 (BetVictor)
AI Probability: 55% | Implied Probability: 48% | EV: +16%
Mohamed Belloumi has cleared the 1.5-shot line in seven of his last ten games, and all three of his away outings this season have produced at least two shots, making his road record the more compelling part of this case.
Mohamed Belloumi has cleared the 1.5-shot line in seven of his last ten games and in all but two of his starts this season, with his shot counts reading 1, 4, 3, 5, 3, 2, 1 and 2 across his Premier League outings. He travels to Arsenal this weekend as Hull City's most dangerous forward, with three goals and two assists from 690 minutes of Premier League football so far.
He's well supported by Oli McBurnie in the Hull attack, and with Belloumi's directness a consistent theme all season, 11/10 for him to register two or more shots looks a fair price at an Emirates Stadium where Hull have already shown they can create against top sides this term.
TIP 2: Erling Haaland Over 1.5 Shots On Target — 1pt
Best odds: 11/10 (Coral)
AI Probability: 53% | Implied Probability: 48% | EV: +10%
Erling Haaland has cleared the 1.5 shots on target line in four of his last six appearances across all competitions, and his Premier League return this season reads 1, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 3, 3 and 2, an average of 1.8 on target per 90 in away games.
Nottingham Forest are struggling to make their home advantage count and have not scored a single goal at the City Ground this season, the kind of defensive passivity that tends to invite sustained pressure from Manchester City's attack.
With Forest offering little going forward to drag Haaland back defensively, 11/10 for him to test the goalkeeper at least twice looks well-supported.
TIP 3: Amario Cozier-Duberry To Score Or Assist — 1pt
Best odds: 3/4 (Betway)
AI Probability: 63% | Implied Probability: 57% | EV: +10%
With Will Lankshear a reported doubt for Watford after picking up cramp against Charlton, a lot of Middlesbrough's attacking responsibility is likely to fall on Amario Cozier-Duberry's shoulders — and the Brighton loanee looks ready to deliver. He's managed to score or assist in seven of his last nine Championship games, and in three of his last four away fixtures, making him one of the more consistent creative threats in the division right now.
His shot counts this season read 2, 3, 6, 8, 4, 1, 2, 7 and 2, and his key pass tallies read 3, 4, 1, 2, 2, 0, 5, 3 and 1, a spread that shows he's capable of both creating and finishing in the same match. He already has three goals and five assists in the Championship this season from just ten appearances, an impressive return for a 21-year-old on his first loan at this level.
Without Lankshear to absorb the defensive attention, Cozier-Duberry should see even more of the ball and get into more dangerous positions at Vicarage Road. Check his availability in the final team news before kick-off, but if he starts, this looks well-priced.
TIP 4: Jake Cooper Over 0.5 Shots — 1pt
Best odds: 11/10 (Ladbrokes)
AI Probability: 48% | Implied Probability: 48% | EV: +1%
Jake Cooper has registered at least one shot in seven of his last ten games and in four of his last five, maintaining that consistency despite being a centre-back rather than an attacking outlet. His shot counts across those ten games read 2, 1, 1, 2, 0, 0, 2, 0, 1 and 0.
With Millwall travelling to West Brom at The Hawthorns on Saturday, Cooper's aerial threat from set-pieces at a ground where the home side will expect to dominate set-piece situations gives him a regular route to a shot. The EV here is slim at just one percent above implied probability, but the consistency in the data supports the selection.
TIP 5: Joe Willock Over 1.5 Shots — 2pt
Best odds: 5/6 (BetVictor)
AI Probability: 63% | Implied Probability: 55% | EV: +14%
Joe Willock has cleared the 1.5-shot line in seven of his last ten games and in four of his last five away appearances specifically. His shots this season read 2, 2, 0, 1, 5, 2, 5, 2, 3 and 3, an average of 3.21 per 90, and his away returns of 2, 0, 5, 5 and 3 show his impact is not limited to home games.
He travels to Craven Cottage with Newcastle on Saturday, where the predicted lineup has him in a free attacking role behind central striker William Osula, the kind of position that consistently generates shots from midfield. At 5/6 with a 14% positive EV, this rounds off the card as the most value-driven selection of the five.
