EV Eagle is back with five more player prop tips for Sunday's football action.
Sunday's card stretches across five of Europe's top leagues: Nicolas Jackson looks to continue his goal-scoring run as Chelsea host Nottingham Forest, Lamine Yamal's remarkable away form continues as Barcelona travel in La Liga, Timo Becker makes the trip to Hoffenheim with Schalke 04, Pape Matar Sarr is expected to start as Juventus visit the Stadio Franchi, and Matthieu Udol's shot numbers make for a compelling line in Ligue 1. Here are the five selections.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
Bookmakers set their odds based on their own probability estimates for each outcome. Positive EV betting identifies markets where the price on offer is more generous than the real likelihood of that outcome occurring, using recent form, raw data and trend analysis to find the edge.
EV Eagle Betting Tips
| EV Eagle Tips | Best Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Jackson - Anytime Goalscorer | 7/4 | bet365 |
| Lamine Yamal - Anytime Goalscorer | 6/4 | bet365 |
| Timo Becker - Over 2.5 Tackles | 1/1 | Ladbrokes |
| Pape Matar Sarr - Over 1.5 Fouls | 23/20 | Coral |
| Matthieu Udol - Over 1.5 Shots | 23/20 | BetVictor |
TIP 1: Nicolas Jackson to Score Anytime – 1pt
Best odds: 7/4 (bet365)
AI probability: 37% | Implied probability: 36% | EV: 2%
Nicolas Jackson has made an encouraging start to life at Aston Villa, and the striker is worth considering when Unai Emery's side travel to Manchester United on Sunday.
The former Chelsea forward has scored five goals in his last five Premier League appearances, establishing himself as a major threat in Villa's attack. He has also found the net five times in eight league appearances this season, making him one of the visitors' most important attacking outlets.
His shot volume provides another reason for optimism. Jackson's shots in his starts across all competitions this season have been: 1, 2, 3, 4, 4, 5, 4, 6, 3, 2 and 0. Restricting that sample to his Premier League starts gives figures of 2, 3, 4, 4, 6, 2 and 0.
That is a healthy run of involvement in front of goal, with Jackson regularly getting opportunities to test opposition goalkeepers. Manchester United have also struggled to keep clean sheets, giving the Villa forward a promising opportunity to extend his scoring run.
TIP 2: Lamine Yamal to Score Anytime – 1pt
Best odds: 6/4 (bet365)
AI probability: 45% | Implied probability: 40% | EV: 12%
Lamine Yamal is one of the most exciting attacking talents in European football, and Barcelona will need his creativity and threat in the final third when they visit Atlético Madrid on Sunday.
This is a huge fixture in the La Liga title race, with Barcelona sitting top and Atlético close behind. The stakes are high, but Yamal has already shown that he can deliver in demanding environments.
His shooting numbers are particularly impressive. Across his starts in all competitions this season, Yamal has recorded 6, 6, 5, 4, 4, 5, 6, 5, 7, 3, 4, 8, 6, 7 and 2 shots. That is a remarkably consistent level of attacking involvement.
The away numbers are just as encouraging. In his seven away starts, Yamal has registered 4, 4, 5, 5, 3, 8 and 2 shots. He has also scored six goals in his six away appearances in all competitions this season, while finding the net three times in his last three La Liga matches.
Barcelona arrive in strong spirits after beating Alavés 6-1 in the league and Aston Villa 3-0 in the Champions League. Yamal has been central to their attacking output, and his willingness to shoot gives him multiple routes to finding the net.
TIP 3: Timo Becker Over 2.5 tackles – 1pt
Best odds: 1/1 (Ladbrokes)
AI probability: 56% | Implied probability: 50% | EV: 13%
Timo Becker is another player whose individual numbers make his market worth a closer look. Schalke travel to Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga, and Becker's tackle numbers suggest he could be busy defensively.
The defender has recorded the following tackle totals in his eight appearances this season: 3, 6, 2, 5, 3, 3, 2 and 4.
He has cleared the 2.5-tackle line in seven of those eight matches, an excellent record for a market that only requires three successful tackles. Becker is averaging 3.50 tackles per 90 minutes this season, comfortably above the line offered.
His away record is also encouraging. In four away matches, his tackle totals have been 6, 3, 2 and 4. He has reached at least three tackles in three of those four appearances.
Schalke face a Hoffenheim side that will look to impose itself at home, which could create plenty of defensive work for the visitors. Becker's numbers indicate that he is regularly involved in challenges, and the 1/1 price offers an opportunity to back that trend.
TIP 4: Matthieu Udol — Over 1.5 Shots — 1pt
Best odds: 23/20 (BetVictor)
AI Probability: 53% | Implied Probability: 47% | EV: +15%
The highest EV tip of the card at plus 15 percent. Matthieu Udol is RC Lens's first-choice left-back and one of the more aggressive, shot-taking full-backs in Ligue 1, having scored two league goals already this season and registered seven Ligue 1 assists last campaign.
His shot counts this season read 2, 0, 0, 2, 3, 2, 2, 0, 3, 4, 0 and 3, averaging 1.72 shots per 90 overall, and his home figures of 2, 0, 3, 2, 0 and 3 produce a rate of 1.61 shots per 90. With Lens at home in Ligue 1 on Sunday and Udol this involved in the forward phases of Lens's play regardless of opponent, 23/20 for him to exceed 1.5 shots rounds off the card as the strongest value selection of the five.
TIP 4: Bremer over 0.5 shots – 1pt
Best odds: 5/6 (BetVictor)
AI probability: 60% | Implied probability: 55% | EV: 10%
Juventus defender Bremer is the next selection, with the Brazilian backed to register at least one shot when the Bianconeri travel to Fiorentina in Serie A.
Bremer has exceeded 0.5 shots in each of his last three Serie A appearances, giving this selection a strong recent trend. His season-long numbers also make the price worth considering. He also cleared this leg, attempting 3 shots in Juventus' last game against Fiorentina.
The Juventus defender's shot totals across his appearances in all competitions this season are 2, 2, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1 and 2. He has registered at least one attempt in seven of those ten matches.
His away numbers are particularly interesting. Bremer's shot totals on the road this season are 0, 2, 1, 2, 1, 0 and 2. He has managed at least one shot in five of those seven appearances.
As a centre-back, Bremer can offer a threat from set-pieces and attacking situations, making a single attempt a realistic target. The recent Serie A trend adds further encouragement.
