Tom Love has an in-depth preview and two tips for the Friday night fixture in the Bundesliga.
Freiburg are once again involved in the Friday night fixture in the Bundesliga as they welcome Champions League chasing Borussia Monchengladbach to the Black Forest. Freiburg’s slim hopes of Europa league qualification are drifting away from them with Christian Streich failing to see his side record a win since the restart. They still remain four points off sixth placed Wolfsburg put need a big turnaround in performances to start getting the desired results.
Intriguingly for Freiburg, who have so long relied on their strong home form, they have lost both games at Europa Park and picked up their two draws on the road. They’ve shown very little going forward in all games too, averaging 0.69 expected goals per game since the resumption. On the whole they have been pretty lucky that below the top 6 it’s much of a muchness and in the xG table they’d still be in a relegation fight. What’s more, they could be without Janik Haberer and Manuel Gulde here.
Gladbach hit back from a disappointing draw at Bremen with a resounding 4-1 win over Union Berlin last week. Marcus Thuram and Alassane Plea once again showcased their excellent partnership and will be a huge threat for this Freiburg defence. The Foals also boast the third best underlying process on the xG data and are rightfully up there. Although there’s only four points between these two, the true gap in quality is obvious.
Marco Rose will be well aware that Bayer Leverkusen are only behind them on goal difference and the pressure is firmly on with them playing a day before Die Werkself. Leverkusen have a tough test against Bayern Munich and Gladbach could come out of this weekend three points clear.
Looking at the betting Monchengladbach are rightful favourites at 5/6 and I think that’s a fine price for a side that are unbeaten in five on the road. They’ll be full of confidence after that 4-1 thrashing at the weekend and they have plenty of options on the bench with the likes of Tony Jantschke and Keanan Bennetts back involved. The reverse fixture earlier in the season saw a 4-2 win for a free-scoring Gladbach and given Freiburg concede a league high 18 shots per game the visitors should get ample chances to grab a few goals. I’ll make them a 2 point play to take the win here.
I’ll also dip into the anytime goalscorer market as there’s an in-form player who looks a great price to get on the scoresheet. Gladbach midfielder Florian Neuhaus scored last week and has popped up in the shots market time and time again, showing his propensity to get forward and pull the trigger. The 23-year-old is only behind Plea and Thuram in terms of shots per game and he racked up two shots on target against Union and also took six shots, landing three on target the game before against Bremen. Even the game before that he had two shots on target against Leverkusen.
He’s best price 11/2 to score anytime and that really stands out as some firms are offering prices as short as 12/5. Christoph Kramer is likely to occupy a deeper role in the middle of the park, giving Neuhaus the freedom to support the attack. I wouldn’t be surprised if he got a few more shots on target again here and hopefully he can beat the keeper with one of them.
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