Macca has picked out four foul angles across the Newcastle and Manchester City matches on Wednesday night.
Newcastle vs Athletic Club
Tip 1: Alejandro Rego - Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt
1/1 best price available with Ladbrokes/Coral. 5/6 elsewhere. As low as 4/9.
Rego is averaging 2.01 fouls per 90 minutes this season despite only seeing limited action for Athletic Club so far, which tells you a lot about his aggression and defensive involvement when he’s on the pitch. He’s expected to come into the side today with Ernesto Valverde likely rotating heavily after the Basque derby, and with several first team players sidelined through injury, his minutes should increase.
This price looks a little generous when compared across the market, other bookmakers have this line as short as 1.44 which highlights the value on offer. Newcastle’s midfield is also one of the most fouled units in Europe, averaging over five fouls won per 90 minutes collectively. At the heart of that is Bruno Guimarães, who has been fouled 2.35 times per 90 across the last 20 Newcastle matches.
All signs point toward a busy evening for Rego defensively.
Tip 2: Dan Burn - Over 1.5 Fouls - 1.5pts
23/20 best price available with Ladbrokes/Coral. As short as 8/15 elsewhere.
Targeting the big man again in midweek action, and with good reason. Burn has committed 2 or more fouls in six of his eight starts at full back this season, an impressive level of consistency and largely due to the fact he’s playing out of position. He faces another awkward matchup here against Alex Berenguer, who has been one of La Liga’s most fouled wingers so far.
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Berenguer is averaging 2.54 fouls won per 90 minutes, drawing 2 or more in nine of his eleven appearances. Berenguer is a great ball carrier and tends to draw contact, and Burn’s size and style of defending means he’s often forced into niggly challenges. It’s another clear mismatch on the wing that should keep him busy.
Adding a bit of narrative play here… Burn recently spoke in a press conference about how Newcastle need to be uglier on the pitch. He said “Probably be a bit more ugly with stuff. We were well known a few years ago for… I won’t say the word, but something-housery.” Make of that what you will, but given his recent data and that mindset, I’m more than happy to have Burn’s foul line onside again here.
Man City vs Borussia Dortmund
Tip 3: Ruben Dias - Over 0.5 Fouls - 1.5pts
21/20 best price available with betway. As short as 8/13 elsewhere.
This is another spot where the bookies can’t seem to agree and that’s usually a good sign. We often see this kind of price discrepancy in Champions League fixtures, where player data is interpreted differently across markets and that tends to create value pockets like this one.
Ruben Dias has committed a foul in six of his last seven games, with a consistent run of numbers: 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1. Even just on that form alone, odds around evens look generous. He’s averaging 0.9 fouls per 90 this season, but that rate could easily increase tonight given the opposition.
He’s likely to be tested by Dortmund’s most fouled player, Serhou Guirassy who has drawn 14 fouls across his eight appearances so far. Close to him is Karim Adeyemi on the right hand side, averaging 2.12 fouls drawn per 90 and never shy of running directly at defenders. Between the two of them, Dias should have his hands full in transition and off the ball situations, giving this line plenty of potential to land.
Tip 4: Jeremy Doku - Over 2.5 Fouls Won - 1.25pts
12/5 best price available with bet365. As short as 1/1 elsewhere.
Doku has been nothing short of electric for City since joining. His explosive acceleration, sharp changes of direction and low centre of gravity make him a nightmare for defenders in one v one situations. He can turn a full back inside out before they even have a chance to adjust, and it’s no surprise that fouls follow him wherever he goes.
The numbers back that up. Doku has been fouled three or more times in six of his last ten starts for City with super sub rules taken into account, a 60% hit rate that would normally price this line closer to evens. Yet we’re being offered 3.40 here, which looks inflated given his playing style and the likelihood of him being isolated on the left wing again.
The added bonus is Bet365’s Super Sub feature, meaning if Doku is replaced during the game, the incoming substitute inherits the bet. It’s likely that the odds on offer has been priced without super sub fully taken into consideration and that’s where we get some extra edge here.
