Benfica v Napoli

Tip 1: Rasmus Hojlund Over 0.5 Shots On Target vs Benfica  - 1pt

Best odds of 5/6 with bet365 when publishing. As short as 3/10 elsewhere.

Hojlund’s form has lifted massively since leaving United. He’s scored 6 goals in 13 games and heads into this one after hitting a brace against Juventus, registering 3 shots on target in that match alone. He’s averaging 1 shot on target per 90 minutes and has landed at least one in each of his last three Champions League appearances. With some firms pricing this around 1/3, Bet365 are offering clear value at 5/6 and I wouldn’t put you off 2 shots on target @ 9/2 if you prefer a longer odds selection.

Benfica v Napoli

Tip 2: Scott McTominay Over 0.5 Shots On Target vs Benfica - 1pt

Best odds of 5/6 with bet365 when publishing. As short as 1/3 elsewhere.

There seems to be a pattern emerging with former United players thriving at Napoli, and McTominay is another one settling in well. He’s an interesting pick here because he actually averages the most shots on target in the Napoli squad, yet the market has him priced higher than several teammates. That creates a clear angle to exploit. Some bookmakers go as low as 1.30, and even three major UK firms sit around 1.53, so 1.83 stands out.

He’s averaging 1.27 shots on target per 90 across Napoli’s last 30 games and has produced 6 shots on target and a goal in his last five matches. He also hit two shots on target in his most recent Champions League appearance. Given that profile, 1.83 for a single shot on target looks strong value.

Leverkusen v Newcastle

Tip 3: Ibrahim Maza Over 2.5 Tackles vs Newcastle - 1.5pts

Best odds of 5/2 with BetVictor when publishing. As short as 13/10 elsewhere.

Maza is averaging 2.16 tackles per 90 this season and his recent numbers show he’s consistently around this line, with recent game logs of 3, 5, 0, 4, 1, 2, and 3 tackles. The one tackle match came in a 45 minute appearance, and with Bet365’s super sub promotion, any substitute completing his minutes keeps the bet alive.

He’ll be operating against a Newcastle side that has allowed 43 tackles to central midfielders across their last 10 matches. Given how often opponents get chances to make interventions in that zone, Maza should have plenty of opportunities to hit this line and 3.50 odds certainly look very generous.