The EV Eagle picked out two winners from four bets in Tuesday's column. Check their tips for Wednesday's UCL here.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Yesterday's Results:
Jens Petter Hauge – Over 0.5 Shots on Target - 1pt - LOST
João Pedro – Over 2.5 Shots - 1 Point - WON
Moisés Caicedo – Over 1.5 Fouls - 1 Point - WON
Aurélien Tchouaméni – Over 1.5 Fouls - 1 Point - LOST
2025/26 Season P+L: +17.7pts
Tip 1: Dan Burn — To Be Shown A Card vs Barcelona — 1pt
Best odds: 11/4 (William Hill & 10Bet)
Worst odds: 15/8
Burn has been shown a card in 4 of his last 10 games (40%), and the spot is obvious: Newcastle are away at the Camp Nou in a second leg that’s level at 1-1 on aggregate, so defensive pressure and “take one for the team” moments increase.
AI probability: 30.2% | Odds probability: 26.7% | Expected Value: 13.3%
Tip 2: Dan Burn — Over 1.5 Fouls vs Barcelona — 1pt
Best odds: 29/20 (Ladbrokes & Coral)
Worst odds: 1/2
Burn has cleared 1.5 fouls in 4 of his last 10 (40%) and this game state suits the line with Barcelona likely to dominate territory at home in a tie that’s finely poised.
If Newcastle have to defend wide areas for long spells, Burn’s foul count can climb quickly through repeated 1v1 defending and recovery challenges.
AI probability: 57.9% | Odds probability: 46.5% | Expected Value: 24.4%
Tip 3: Lamine Yamal — Anytime Goalscorer vs Newcastle — 1pt
Best odds: 6/4 (SpreadEx & Sporting Index)
Worst odds: 19/20
Yamal has scored anytime in 7 of his last 10 games (70%) and Barcelona return home needing to force the issue in a tie that’s 1-1 on aggregate.
With Barca’s attack geared around getting their high-volume threats into dangerous zones at the Camp Nou, Yamal’s scoring chances stay live throughout.
AI probability: 46.5% | Odds probability: 40% | Expected Value: 16.3%
Midnite
Tip 4: Dominik Szoboszlai — Anytime Goalscorer vs Galatasaray — 1pt
Best odds: 5/2 (SpreadEx & Sporting Index)
Worst odds: 13/8
Szoboszlai has scored anytime in 4 of his last 10 games (40%), and Liverpool’s situation should push shot volume with the Reds 1-0 down on aggregate heading into the second leg at Anfield.
He’s a consistent “second-wave” threat from midfield when Liverpool are chasing a game, which boosts his involvement in shooting positions.
AI probability: 31.7% | Odds probability: 28.6% | Expected Value: 11%
Tip 4: Julián Álvarez — Anytime Goalscorer vs Tottenham — 1pt
Best odds: 9/4 (betway)
Worst odds: 7/5
Álvarez has scored anytime in 3 of his last 10 (30%), but this is a classic game-script spot with Atlético taking a 5-2 aggregate lead into north London — Spurs have to open up, and that can hand Atlético transition chances.
If Tottenham commit numbers forward early, Álvarez remains Atlético’s most direct finisher for counter-attacking phases.
AI probability: 38% | Odds probability: 32.3% | Expected Value: 17.8%
Tip 6: Atlético Madrid to Beat Tottenham (Win Market) — 1pt
Best odds: 9/5 (multiple bookmakers)
Atlético have won 6 of their last 10 games (60%), and they’re in pole position after establishing a 5-2 aggregate lead from the first leg — meaning Spurs likely need to take risks that can play into Atlético’s strengths.
If Tottenham chase the game aggressively, Atlético’s edge in game management and counter-attacking opportunities increases the value of the straight win angle.
AI probability: 40% | Odds probability: 34.5% | Expected Value: 16%
