Jose Mourinho heads into another special Champions League night, aiming to repeat Benfica's heroics against Real Madrid, while the 15-time champions seek to regain the advantage ahead of the return leg.
| Tournament: | Champions League |
|---|---|
| Venue: | Estadio da Luz, Lisbon |
| Date: | 17.02.2026 |
| Time: | 20:00 GMT |
Benfica vs Real Madrid Form and Head to Head
The Portuguese giants, Benfica, arrive in this fixture following a narrow 2-1 away victory against Santa Clara in Liga Portugal. This win contributes to a solid run of form for the hosts, who have secured four victories, one draw, and just one defeat in their last six matches across all competitions. Their only recent setback came in a 0-2 Champions League away loss to Juventus, showcasing their resilience, particularly in front of their home crowd where they recently dispatched Alverca 2-1 and Estrela da Amadora 4-0.
Real Madrid's recent performances have been more mixed. Their last outing saw them emerge 4-1 victorious away to Real Sociedad in LaLiga. Over their last six matches, Los Blancos have recorded five wins and one defeat. Notable results include a commanding 6-1 home victory over Monaco in the Champions League and a 2-0 away win against Valencia.
The most recent encounter between these two European heavyweights saw Benfica emerge victorious with a thrilling 4-2 win over Real Madrid in the Champions League on 28th January 2026 at the Estádio da Luz. Historically, across the last six meetings, Benfica have won two, drawn two, and lost none against Real Madrid, suggesting a surprising edge for the Portuguese side in this fixture.
Who is the Betting Favourite in Benfica vs Real Madrid?
Real Madrid are narrow favourites to beat Benfica at the Estádio da Luz, with the latest odds implying roughly a 44% chance of an away win. Benfica are priced as home underdogs with a 31% chance of victory in this Champions League knockout tie.
| Match Result | Best Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Benfica | 9/4 | BresBet |
| Real Madrid | 5/4 | Betfred |
| Draw | 11/4 | AK Bets |
Odds last updated at 4PM Tuesday, 17th February.
Betano Sportbook
Benfica vs Real Madrid Team News
Benfica manager José Mourinho is expected to field a compact 4-2-3-1 formation, prioritising defensive discipline. The hosts will be without Alexander Bah, H. Araújo, J. Veloso, and R. Ríos, all sidelined with injuries. Despite these absences, the core defensive unit, anchored by Nicolás Otamendi and António Silva, remains intact. Upfront, Vangelis Pavlidis leads the line, boasting nine Champions League goals this season and remains a potent threat. Andreas Schjelderup, who bagged a brace in the previous meeting against Real Madrid, will be a key attacking outlet.
Real Madrid, under Álvaro Arbeloa, faces structural adjustments with Jude Bellingham and Rodrygo unavailable. This forces a flatter 4-4-2, emphasizing speed, particularly through the formidable partnership of Kylian Mbappé and Vinícius Júnior, who have created 19 chances for each other in the competition. Arda Güler will step into a creative role in Bellingham's absence. Defensively, Antonio Rüdiger organises the back line, with Éder Militão also missing, meaning midfield protection will be crucial against Benfica's counters.
Benfica vs Real Madrid Predicted Lineups
Benfica (4-2-3-1): A. Trubin; S. Dahl, A. Silva, N. Otamendi, T. Araújo; L. Barreiro, E. Barrenechea; A. Schjelderup, Rafa, G. Prestianni; V. Pavlidis
Real Madrid (4-4-2): T. Courtois; Á. Carreras, D. Huijsen, A. Rüdiger, T. Alexander-Arnold; E. Camavinga, A. Tchouaméni, A. Güler, F. Valverde; V. Júnior, K. Mbappé
Lineups powered by WhoScored.
Benfica vs Real Madrid Match Prediction
The previous encounter at the Estádio da Luz saw a chaotic 4-2 Benfica win, exposing Real Madrid’s struggles on the counter and sending the Portuguese side into the knockouts. This time, things are likely to be more measured. Mourinho’s Benfica will look to compress space and attack through wide creators, while Real Madrid will aim to stretch play vertically and exploit their pace.
Real’s strength lies in direct attacks, leading the Champions League with 29 this season and converting 31% of high turnovers into shots. Benfica operates similarly, though with fewer sequences. Kylian Mbappé’s presence, with 13 goals in seven Champions League matches, adds another layer of threat, forcing defensive adjustments. Benfica’s recent home wins against Spanish sides have seen four goals apiece, hinting at the potential for another open game. Between tactical battles and attacking firepower, a high-scoring draw feels like a realistic outcome.
Prediction: Benfica 2-2 Real Madrid
Benfica vs Real Madrid Player Stat Trend
Our EV Eagle has picked out five trending player stats for Benfica vs Real Madrid.
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Kylian Mbappé has attempted 3+ shots in 7 of their last 7 apps in Champions League.
Best odds of 8/13 at BetVictor while publishing.
Alvaro Carreras has exceeded 1.5 Tackles in 7 of their last 10 games.
Best odds of 5/6 at BetVictor while publishing.
Arda Guler has exceeded 1.5 Shots in 5 of their last 7 games.
Best odds of 4/5 at BetMGM UK while publishing.
Samuel Dahl has made 4+ tackles in 4 of their last 5 apps in Champions League.
Best odds of 7/5 at Sporting Index while publishing.
Vangelis Pavlidis has attempted 2+ shots in 5 of their last 5 apps in Champions League.
Best odds of 7/19 at Unibet while publishing.
Benfica vs Real Madrid Bet Builder Tip
Our Benfica vs Real Madrid Bet Builder Tip includes:
- K. Mbappe Over 1.5 - Shots On Target
- Yes - Both Teams To Score
- E. Barrenechea Over 1.5 - Fouls
- S. Dahl Over 3.5 - Tackles
Best odds of 10/1 at bet365 at the time of publishing.
Make sure to get the best odds on your Bet Builders with our exclusive Bet Builder Comparison Tool.
