Oli Nixon shares his three best bets for Tuesday's Champions League fixtures.
Bodo Glimt vs Man City
Abdukodir Khusanov to be fouled o0.5 times v Bodo/Glimt – 1 unit
Best odds of evens at bet365 while publishing.
A Bodo/Glimt side who are likely to see very little of the ball against Man City are going to need to make the most of their possession in the final third, and the over-zealous Kasper Hogh is likely to do so by committing a few fouls. The Danish striker is a clumsy target-man who has committed 1.35 fouls per 90 in league action and six offences in six Champions League starts therefore, picking out a City defender to be fouled seems an appropriate angle of attack.
With the visitors' depleted resources at the back, Abdukodir Khusanov will start at centre back and the Uzbek, having been felled 0.77 times per 90 in domestic action, suggests he’s capable of drawing at least one infringement. Hogh is likely to try and take advantage of Khusanov’s lack of aerial prowess and impose himself upon the defender, and plenty of aerial duels are likely to lead to a few fouls.
Inter vs Arsenal
Tip 2: Marcus Thuram o1.5 fouls committed for v Arsenal – 1 unit
Best odds of 5/4 at BetMGM while publishing.
William Saliba to be fouled o0.5 times v Inter Milan – 1 unit
Best odds of 5/4 at Bet365 while publishing.
Another intriguing battle, which should lead to plenty of fouls, is the Inter Milan attack against Arsenal’s central defensive pair. When these sides met in this competition last season, Inter’s strikers combined for seven foul involvements, whilst Arsenal duo Saliba and Gabriel were involved in four incidents each, and so it’s safe to assume we’ll get another physical affair.
Marcus Thuram only played 28 minutes from the bench in the aforementioned previous meeting and still managed to commit two fouls. His aggressive pressing has seen him commit 2.5 fouls per 90 in Serie A action this season, and in the Champions League, he’s landed this bet in each of his three starts.
Saliba was on the end of late challenges twice in last season’s match-up, and whilst he’s only drawn 0.55 fouls per 90 across all competitions during this campaign, five fouls won in his last five starts demonstrate his credentials. Right-sided central defenders are regularly fouled against Inter, and given the recent history, we can expect one of the hosts’ physical frontmen to try and leave their mark on Saliba early.
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Tip 3: David Luiz o0.5 shots for v Chelsea – 1 unit
Best odds of 6/5 at Ladbrokes/Coral while publishing.
In what should be a one-sided affair at Stamford Bridge, a sentimental side story exists in the form of David Luiz’s return to Chelsea. The big-haired Brazilian was a cult hero for the Blues and will be fondly remembered for his love of shooting from range. For Pafos, he’s managed six shots from six starts in Europe’s top competition and given that he’ll be the main target from all set pieces, this feels a generous price. He also has the added motivation of impressing at his old club, and we know from his time with Chelsea that he’ll need no encouragement to pull the trigger from way out.
Chelsea should dominate this game, but with a fixture pile-up ahead of them, Liam Rosenior may take the opportunity to rotate his squad. The only other time the hosts have faced a side as weak as Pafos in the competition, they gave up nine shots against Qarabag and given that they’ve conceded nine shots to centre backs in their last six matches, Luiz may be afforded at least one chance to try his luck for old time’s sake.
