Back the draw when Yorkshire rivals Leeds and Sheffield Wednesday clash in front of the TV Cameras.
Leeds v Sheffield Wednesday - Saturday 12:30, Sky Sports 1
Stalemates have been a rarity for fifth-placed Leeds this season - just four of them in 33 matches - but they played out a 1-1 at Ipswich last weekend and they might be inclined to settle for another point when they host sixth-placed Sheffield Wednesday in this lunchtime derby, so back the draw at 11/5. Irrespective of the dynamics, my shot-based ratings make it shorter than 2/1.
With both teams locked on 58 points, separated by one goal in the goal difference column, and sitting on a six-point cushion over seventh-placed Fulham (who face a tricky trip to Cardiff later in the day), they arguably stand to lose more in defeat than they would gain in victory. Neither side can claim to be in mint condition, so simple prospect theory gets the nod.
A sloppy start saw Carlos Carvalhal’s men slip to shock 2-1 home defeat against Brentford in midweek, just when they appeared to be shaping up for a sprint finish. The upshot of that setback is is likely to be the Portuguese stressing the importance discipline in his pre-match team talk, rather than rallying his players into an angry response.
As such, there’s additional value in the 0-0 half time score at 6/4 or better. Both teams like to gain a foothold before they impose themselves. Leeds boast the best first-half defensive record in the division and they’ve conceded only two goals in the opening 45 minutes at Elland Road (17 matches). The Owls have conceded just six in 17 matches on their travels.
