Wolves are odds-on to beat their struggling Midlands rivals but are they value?
Wolves v Birmingham - Friday 19:45
Gianfranco Zola bottomed out against QPR last weekend. His Birmingham side were thumped 4-1 in front of an apoplectic St Andrew’s crowd and his tenure couldn’t possibly get any worse in front of the cameras at Molineux. If it does, then he will probably be out of a job come Monday. Instead, let’s assume there will be a reaction.
Because the heat isn’t only on Zola. In the aftermath of that Hoops horror show, accusations are now starting to be levelled at the players, that they have downed tools, happy to let the Italian take all the flak for a campaign that has spiralled out of control. If those remarks sting, then this could be the ideal time and place to make a point.
Shot data shows that Wolves are superior, even if the league table doesn’t. But whether they are so superior as to be odds-on in a derby where, historically, there’s no such thing as home advantage is debatable. Over the past 25 years, these two clubs have met 38 times, producing 15 home wins, 14 away wins and nine draws. And the away team has outscored the home team, 46-45.
On that basis alone, there’s mileage in the away win at 18/5. Neither team is going to make the play-offs and neither team is going down. It’s just a local derby for the sake of a local derby, in front of a national audience. It’s not hard to imagine a scrappy encounter developing, settled by one goal. Back the Birmingham 1-0 correct score at 12/1 rather than Wolves 1-0 at 6s.
