It would take a mammoth effort for Spurs to blow it from here.
Spurs head to Germany in an incredibly strong position following their 3-0 victory at Wembley against Borussia Dortmund, but they shouldn’t feel safe yet – the Signal Iduna Park is a fortress.
Dortmund beat Atletico Madrid 4-0 at home in the group stages of this season’s competition, and if a side as savvy and battle-hardened as Atletico can capitulate under the yellow wall, what on earth could happen to Spurs?
In the Bundesliga, Dortmund are unbeaten at home (drawing just two of their 12 matches), banging in 40 goals in the process; this is far from a forgone conclusion.
Spurs have lost their last four away games in all competitions – most recently a meek defeat at the hands of Chelsea – which is why I’m backing Dortmund to win on the night.
I believe the Londoners will scrape through by the skin of their teeth, perhaps virtue of an away goal, but I’m convinced Dortmund finish the second-leg as victors.
Though I’m expecting goals, my next tip is for the sides to be level after 30 minutes.
Dortmund have netted just seven times in the first half-hour at home in the Bundesliga – surprising considering how many they score later on – and Spurs have shipped five goals in the first 30 minutes away and at home.
My third tip is a stats-based one: over 10.5 corners.
Dortmund’s matches see 10.35 corners on average, while Spurs’ average 10.04.
While these numbers are slightly lower than the magic 11 we need for this one, Dortmund will have to go hell for leather from the get go, so don’t be surprised if Spurs have to weather an early storm.
13/10 looks pretty generous considering both sides’ corners-per-match rate is so high.