Hull vs Millwall

The playoffs are the highlight of the EFL calendar and, with 15 games across the EFL, Matthew O’Regan begins with a look at Friday night’s clash between Hull and Millwall, alongside a 12/1 bet builder. 

Heading into the final game of the season, Millwall still had an outside chance of securing automatic promotion, needing to beat Oxford and hope Ipswich slipped up against QPR. That dream was quickly extinguished, with the Tractor Boys 2-0 up after just 10 minutes, meaning the Lions had to settle for a playoff spot.

Hull, meanwhile, have far exceeded expectations this campaign by finishing in the top six, a feat secured on the final day as an Oli McBurnie brace sealed a 2-1 victory over Norwich. The away side has won this fixture 3-1 in both head-to-heads this season - a good omen for Millwall?

Leg 1: Femi Azeez Over 1.5 Fouls

While Femi Azeez has rightly earned plaudits for his 18 goal contributions, his defensive work should not be overlooked, with Alex Neil demanding hard work and graft from his side. The 24-year-old works tirelessly off the ball, averaging 1.41 tackles per 90. He is also not afraid to do the dirty work, committing 1.83 fouls per 90.

In the final game of the season, Azeez made five fouls, having also committed four against Middlesbrough - evidence that he rises to the occasion in big games. In the reverse fixture, the winger made two fouls, while he was sent off for violent conduct after three fouls in the home game against Hull.

Leg 2: Matt Crooks Over 1.5 Fouls

This is expected to be a cagey, nervy affair, with physicality key to winning playoff games - and few players epitomise that more than Matt Crooks. Standing at 6’4”, the 32-year-old has built a career as a box-crashing midfielder, reaching double figures in a season for both Rotherham and Middlesbrough.

At the Tigers, however, he is primarily tasked with shielding the back four alongside Regan Slater, using his imposing frame to win challenges. As well as averaging 2.40 tackles per 90, he is matching that output in the foul column, committing 2+ fouls in 12 of his last 16 appearances.

With John Lundstram (1.35 fouls per 90) and Darko Gyabi (1.57) waiting in the wings as potential impact substitutes, Crooks looks good value to rack up the fouls once again.

Leg 3: Oli McBurnie Over 1.5 Fouls

Adding further physicality to Hull’s side is Oli McBurnie. With 24 goal contributions from 32 starts, the Scot has been central to Hull’s strong season, also acting as a focal point that allows players such as Joe Gelhardt, Liam Millar and Mohamed Belloumi to express themselves.

Up against burly centre-backs Tristan Crama and Jake Cooper, McBurnie is likely to be drawn into several physical battles. He averages 1.61 fouls per 90 and has been a consistent fouler throughout his career, also committing two fouls the last time these sides met.

Leg 4: Oli McBurnie Over 0.5 Fouls Won

McBurnie is equally adept at drawing fouls, averaging 1.16 per 90. He will look to do so again against the physical pairing of Cooper and Crama as he seeks to relieve pressure for his side. Notably, 15 of the last 18 strikers to face Millwall have drawn at least one foul.

Leg 5: Tristan Crama Over 0.5 Shots

As touched on earlier, playoff games are renowned for being tight and cagey affairs, meaning a set piece could be required to break the deadlock. Only Coventry and Southampton have scored more set-piece goals than Alex Neil’s side, while only three teams have registered more shots.

Defensively, Hull are conceding 4.43 shots per game from set pieces - the seventh-worst record in the league. Crama is averaging just under a shot per game overall but has seen an upturn in recent weeks, registering a shot in each of his last eight appearances.

The bet builder pays a best price of 14/1 with bet365 when publishing and is as short as 4/1 elsewhere. 

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