The EV Eagle is back with five betting tips across Wednesday's EFL Championship and Champions League football.
How does the EV Eagle work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
EV Eagle's Best Bets for Wednesday
Jarrod Bowen Anytime Goalscorer vs Lincoln City – 6/4 (bet365)
Ronnie Edwards Over 0.5 Shots vs Derby County – 11/10 (bet365)
Isco Over 2.5 Shots vs FC Porto – 11/10 (bet365)
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to Score or Assist vs Manchester City – 13/10 (Betfair)
Ibrahima Konaté to Be Shown a Card vs Roma – 3/1 (BetMGM)
Jarrod Bowen Anytime Goalscorer vs Lincoln City
Best odds of 6/4 with bet365 when writing. 1pt stake advised.
West Ham captain Jarrod Bowen has been in impressive goalscoring form this season, making him an appealing anytime goalscorer selection against newly promoted Lincoln City on Wednesday evening.
The England international has scored five goals in nine Championship appearances, finding the net in four of his last six league matches, including a brace against Bolton and goals against Wolves, Wrexham and QPR.
Bowen rescued a point for the Hammers in their 1-1 draw against QPR on Friday, equalising in the 70th minute. He was a constant attacking threat throughout the contest, registering six shots, with three finding the target.
His underlying numbers are particularly encouraging. Bowen has accumulated 5.2 expected goals (xG) from 38 shots in the Championship this season, averaging 4.3 attempts per 90 minutes.
The matchup against Lincoln also offers encouragement. The Imps have conceded 11 goals across their opening nine league matches, including six in four home fixtures, where they remain without a victory.
Lincoln have also conceded 130 shots in those nine matches, averaging 14.4 per game, while West Ham boast the Championship's best attacking record with 23 goals scored.
With Bowen leading West Ham's goalscoring charts and Lincoln struggling defensively at home, the 6/4 available with bet365 looks an attractive price. Oddschecker's EV Eagle model gives the selection a 40% probability of landing, compared with the 38% implied by the odds.
Ronnie Edwards Over 0.5 Shots vs Derby County
Best odds of 11/10 with bet365. 1pt stake advised.
QPR defender Ronnie Edwards has developed an impressive shooting record this season, making him an appealing selection to register at least one attempt against Derby County on Wednesday evening.
The 23-year-old has recorded at least one shot in seven of his last ten appearances, including each of his last two Championship fixtures against Preston and West Ham.
His home record is particularly encouraging, with Edwards registering a shot in all four of QPR's Championship matches at Loftus Road this season, including two attempts against Preston in his most recent home appearance.
Edwards has averaged one shot per game across nine Championship appearances this campaign, an impressive return for a player who has primarily operated in defence but has also featured in central midfield.
The opposition offers further encouragement. Derby have struggled defensively this season, conceding an average of 14.8 shots per game across their last ten matches.
The Rams sit 23rd in the Championship after nine fixtures, conceding 15 goals and winning just once.
QPR are also averaging 6.2 corners per Championship match, providing opportunities for Edwards to threaten from attacking set pieces when deployed in defence.
With Edwards demonstrating consistent shooting involvement and Derby regularly allowing opponents opportunities, the 11/10 available with bet365 looks an attractive price. Oddschecker's EV Eagle model gives the selection a 57.9% probability of landing, comfortably above the 47.6% implied by the odds.
Isco Over 2.5 Shots vs FC Porto
Best odds of 11/10 with bet365. 1pt stake advised.
Real Betis playmaker Isco has been enjoying an impressive run of shooting form heading into Wednesday's Champions League clash against Porto, making him an appealing selection to register at least three attempts.
The Spanish midfielder has recorded three or more shots in each of his last four starts, registering three against Lille, three against Villarreal, four against Getafe and six against Osasuna.
Isco was particularly impressive in Betis' emphatic 5-2 victory over Osasuna on Sunday, scoring twice from six attempts, with four finding the target.
His underlying numbers are equally encouraging. The 34-year-old has registered 20 shots in just 459 minutes of La Liga football this season, averaging an impressive 3.92 attempts per 90 minutes.
The matchup against Porto also presents an opportunity. The Portuguese side conceded 20 shots, including ten on target, in their opening Champions League fixture against Manchester City, losing 2-0.
Betis have demonstrated their attacking capabilities this season, averaging 17.6 shots per home match and registering 20 attempts in their Champions League opener against Lille.
With Isco operating in an advanced attacking midfield role and clearing this line in each of his last four starts, the 11/10 available with bet365 looks worth considering. Oddschecker's EV Eagle model gives the selection a 49.6% probability of landing, compared with the 47.6% implied by the odds.
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to Score/Assist vs Man City
Best odds of 13/10 with Paddy Power/Betfair. 1pt stake advised.
PSG winger Khvicha Kvaratskhelia could play a pivotal role in Wednesday's heavyweight Champions League encounter against Manchester City, with the Georgian offering both goalscoring and creative potential.
Kvaratskhelia comes into the fixture fresh from scoring in PSG's 3-1 victory over Le Mans on Saturday, finding the net just two minutes after being introduced as a second-half substitute.
The 25-year-old has registered 14 shots in six Ligue 1 appearances this season, with six finding the target. Despite playing just 313 minutes, he has accumulated 1.58 expected goals (xG) and 1.12 expected assists (xA).
That represents a combined 0.78 expected goal contributions per 90 minutes, demonstrating his attacking involvement despite registering just one goal and one assist domestically.
Kvaratskhelia has also created ten chances for his teammates this season, highlighting the additional value of backing him to score or assist rather than focusing solely on his goalscoring output.
The opposition presents a significant challenge, with Manchester City winning all eight competitive matches this season. However, PSG have rediscovered their attacking rhythm, winning four consecutive matches and scoring six goals in their opening Champions League fixture against Slovan Bratislava.
With Kvaratskhelia expected to return to PSG's starting XI, the 13/10 available with Betfair could represent value. Oddschecker's EV Eagle model gives him a 50.1% probability of registering a goal contribution, compared with the 43.5% implied by the odds.
Ibrahima Konaté to Be Shown a Card vs Roma
Best odds of 3/1 with Coral/Ladbrokes/BetMGM. 0.75pt stake advised.
Real Madrid defender Ibrahima Konaté has developed a concerning disciplinary record since arriving at the Bernabéu, making him an appealing selection to be shown a card against Roma in Wednesday's Champions League encounter.
The French international has been booked in five of his last ten appearances across all competitions, including four of his seven La Liga matches for Real Madrid this season.
Konaté has received yellow cards against Real Sociedad, Real Betis, Elche and Villarreal, with his most recent booking coming in Saturday's 1-0 victory over the latter.
The 27-year-old has committed nine fouls across 630 minutes of La Liga football this season, highlighting his relatively frequent bookings despite a modest foul count.
Roma's attacking threat could create further disciplinary problems for the Frenchman.
Gian Piero Gasperini's side are expected to deploy Donyell Malen through the middle, supported by Paulo Dybala and Matías Soulé. Their movement and technical ability could force Konaté into challenging defensive situations.
The referee appointment offers another interesting angle. François Letexier averaged 3.7 cards per match across ten Champions League fixtures last season, with the French official also averaging 4.7 cards across seven Champions League matches during the 2024/25 campaign.
With Konaté already booked in four of his seven league appearances this season, the 3/1 available looks a potentially attractive price. Oddschecker's EV Eagle model gives the selection a 34% probability of landing, significantly higher than the 25% implied by the odds.
