How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results:

Curtis Jones – Over 0.5 Shots vs Marseille - 1pt - VOID
Florian Wirtz – Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1pt - WON
Kevin Mac Allister – Over 2.5 Tackles vs Bayern Munich - 2pts - WON
Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta – Over 1.5 Fouls vs Atalanta - 1 pt - VOID
Gorka Guruzeta – Over 1.5 Shots vs Atalanta - 1pt - WON

Running P+L: +15.02pts

Tip 1: Jamie Leweling – Over 1.5 Shots vs Roma - 1pt

Best odds of 57/50 with BetMGM when publishing.

66% AI probability | 47% Odds implied | 42% Expected Value

Stuttgart's Jamie Leweling has racked up 16 shots across his three Europa League starts this season, so despite an upgrade in opponent in Roma on Thursday, getting plus money for the attacker to have 2+ shots seems a strong play. 

Tip 2: Matias Soule - Over 0.5 Shots on Target vs Stuttgart - 1pt

Best odds of 3/4 with BetMGM.

70% AI probability | 57% Odds implied | 22% Expected Value

Roma's Matias Soule has recorded a shot on target in every Europa League appearance and has nine in total across the league phase so far. Given he starts vs Stuttgart on Thursday, form suggests he is well positioned to cash this bet again.

Tip 3: Juma Bah - Over 0.5 Shots vs Go Ahead Eagles - 1pt

Best odds of 23/20 with BetMGM. 

62% AI probability | 47% Odds implied | 34% Expected Value

Nice centre-back, Juma Bah, has been on a shooting streak of late for his side, having at least one shot in four of his previous five home appearances. With Nice favourites tonight vs Go Ahead Eagles, Bah should have plenty of opportunities from set pieces to record at least on shot on Thursday. 

Tip 4: Óscar Mingueza – Over 0.5 Fouls Committed vs Lille (1pt)

Best odds of 17/20 with Coral/Ladbrokes.

71% AI probability | 54% Odds implied | 32% Expected Value

Celta Vigo's Oscar Mingueza has committed at least one foul in every Europa League appearance this season, and at nearly even money, he looks a good bet to keep that run going vs Lille on Thursday.