The EV Eagle has picked out five positive expected value plays for Wednesday's Europa League matches.
The Europa League opening night takes centre stage on Wednesday night and Oddschecker's EV Eagle has identified five bets offering value across the evening's fixtures.
The selections cover four different markets, with AC Milan defender Strahinja Pavlovic backed for a card, Lyon fancied to win in Belgium, while Rennes duo Esteban Lepaul and Mahdi Camara feature in the player props. Sunderland midfielder Enzo Le Fée completes the five at home to AZ Alkmaar.
Enzo Le Fée Goal/Assist vs AZ Alkmaar (1pt)
Best odds of 11/10 with Paddy Power.
Enzo Le Fée to score or assist at 6/5 is EV Eagle's pick from Sunderland's home meeting with AZ Alkmaar.
Le Fée has operated as an attacking midfielder in each of Sunderland's opening four Premier League matches and has become increasingly involved around the opposition box. He has recorded 10 shots across those four appearances, with four against Fulham followed by three against Brentford and another three against Arsenal.
Penalty duties provide another major boost to the score-or-assist market. Le Fée converted from the spot against Brentford for his first league goal of the season before stepping up again against Arsenal, albeit without converting on that occasion.
EV Eagle gives Le Fée a 48% probability of either scoring or assisting, against an implied probability of 45% at 11/10, producing a 6% EV edge. His advanced position and apparent responsibility from 12 yards create multiple avenues for the bet to land.
Mahdi Camara over 1.5 shots vs Sturm Graz (1pt)
Best odds of 6/5 available with multiple bookmakers.
Our second selection is Rennes' Mahdi Camara to register at least two shots at 6/5 with Coral and Ladbrokes.
Camara has started Rennes' last two Ligue 1 games in a notably advanced midfield role and has recorded exactly two shots in both, against Angers and Marseille.
Rennes have started the season unbeaten with three wins and a draw, scoring eight goals through their first four Ligue 1 fixtures, giving their attacking players a healthy platform heading into Europe.
Comparing bookmakers is essential: the same Camara selection is available at just 2/5 with the shortest-priced firm, a substantial difference for exactly the same play.
Esteban Lepaul to Score vs Sturm Graz (1pt)
Best odds of 5/4 with Sky Bet.
Rennes striker Esteban Lepaul is 5/4 with Sky Bet to score at any time against Sturm Graz, and his recent numbers provide one of the strongest statistical cases among Wednesday's selections.
Lepaul arrives in Austria having won the 2025/26 Ligue 1 top scorer award with 21 goals in 34 appearances, and he has wasted little time carrying that threat into the new campaign. The 26-year-old has scored three times in four Ligue 1 starts this season, including a brace against Le Mans.
Lepaul has generated 16 attempts and eight shots on target through four matches, including six shots against both Le Mans and Angers. He has also taken a penalty for Rennes this season, giving him another potential route to goal.
EV Eagle has Lepaul scoring in 52% of its simulations, comfortably ahead of the 44% implied probability attached to Sky Bet's 5/4. That gives the selection a 16% positive expected-value edge.
Lyon to beat Anderlecht (1pt)
EV Eagle also sides with Lyon to win away at Anderlecht at 7/5, with Paulo Fonseca's team making an unbeaten start to their Ligue 1 campaign.
Lyon have collected eight points from their opening four league matches, scoring six times while conceding only twice. Particularly encouraging for an away selection is their defensive record on the road, having beaten Toulouse 2-0 before drawing 0-0 at Paris FC, leaving them yet to concede away from home in Ligue 1 this term.
The model makes Lyon's probability of winning 44%, compared with the 42% implied probability of the 7/5 price. That equates to a 6% EV edge, with Lyon's early-season defensive solidity providing the foundation for the selection.
Strahinja Pavlovic To be Carded vs Benfica (0.5pts)
Best odds of 7/2 with Sky Bet.
Strahinja Pavlovic is the final selection of Wednesday, with the AC Milan centre-back available at 7/2 with Sky Bet to be shown a card against Benfica.
Discipline has already been an issue for the Serbian this season. Pavlovic has collected two yellow cards from four Serie A starts.
Wednesday's match should provide another testing assignment for the aggressive Milan defender, and the available price is central to the selection. EV Eagle estimates Pavlovic has a 35% chance of being carded, considerably above the 22% implied probability of 7/2, producing a 55% positive expected-value edge.
Shopping around is particularly important here. While Sky Bet go 7/2, the same selection is available as short as 13/8 elsewhere, making the standout price significantly more appealing.
