EV Eagle's five best value bets for Thursday's Europa League action, including Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille and AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus.
Thursday’s Europa League action features Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille, Crystal Palace vs Hoffenheim, AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus, Sparta Prague vs Bournemouth and Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb. Oddschecker’s EV Eagle has picked out five selections that offer positive expected value.
The model compares its own probability for each outcome with the probability implied by the bookmakers’ odds. We’ve selected five of its best value bets for Thursday, 5 November 2026, covering player shots, shots on target and fouls markets.
EV Eagle’s Best Value Bets for Thursday
| EV Eagle Tips | Best Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Timothy Weah Over 0.5 Shots | 5/6 | Paddy Power |
| Ozan Kabak Over 1.5 Fouls | 5/6 | Paddy Power |
| Peer Koopmeiners Over 1.5 Fouls | 21/20 | Ladbrokes |
| Tyler Adams Over 1.5 Fouls | 21/20 | Ladbrokes |
| Dion Beljo Over 0.5 Shots On Target | 8/11 | Betfair Sportsbook |
Odds last updated at 08:46 Thursday, 5 November 2026.
TIP 1: Timothy Weah Over 0.5 Shots vs Bayer Leverkusen
Best odds of 5/6 with Paddy Power.
1pt advised stake.
- AI Probability: 62.7%
- Odds Implied: 54.6%
- Expected Value: 15.0%
Weah Shots, last 10 starts: 3, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 2, 0
He’s had at least one shot in nine of his last ten starts. He’s played the full 90 in nine of those ten, and he averages 1.27 shots per 90 in Ligue 1.
He had three shots against Toulouse on Sunday and scored against Le Havre the week before.
The risk is the opponent. Leverkusen have allowed just 7.0 shots a game in this competition, and Marseille have lost all three of their Europa League games. But for a player who is on the pitch for 90 minutes and has had a shot in nine of his last ten starts, 5/6 is still value.
TIP 2: Ozan Kabak Over 1.5 Fouls vs Crystal Palace
Best odds of 5/6 with Paddy Power.
1pt advised stake.
- AI Probability: 64.9%
- Odds Implied: 54.6%
- Expected Value: 19.0%
Kabak Fouls Committed, last 10 starts: 2, 3, 4, 5, 1, 1, 3, 3, 3, 1
He’s committed two or more fouls in seven of his last ten starts, including four against Lyon and five against Beşiktaş in his two most recent Europa League games. In the Bundesliga he commits 2.42 fouls per 90 and wins just 0.29.
Hoffenheim are an aggressive side in this competition, averaging 20.3 fouls a game in their three Europa League matches.
He started Hoffenheim’s last game, and 5/6 doesn’t reflect how often he goes to ground.
TIP 3: Peer Koopmeiners Over 1.5 Fouls vs Juventus
Best odds of 21/20 with Ladbrokes.
1pt advised stake.
- AI Probability: 65.0%
- Odds Implied: 48.8%
- Expected Value: 33.3%
Koopmeiners Fouls Committed, last 10 starts: 2, 4, 1, 2, 3, 3, 1, 3, 0, 0
He’s committed two or more fouls in six of his last ten starts, including four against Twente and two against Ajax in his last two league games. He commits 1.64 fouls per 90 and wins 0.91.
He’s played the full 90 in every one of those ten starts, so he’ll have plenty of time to get there.
Juventus have drawn 13.7 fouls a game in their three Europa League matches, and AZ have committed 14.0.
TIP 4: Tyler Adams Over 1.5 Fouls vs Sparta Prague
Best odds of 21/20 with Ladbrokes.
1pt advised stake.
- AI Probability: 53.7%
- Odds Implied: 48.8%
- Expected Value: 10.2%
Adams Fouls Committed, last 10 starts: 2, 1, 0, 1, 1, 5, 3, 2, 0, 3
He’s committed two or more fouls in five of his last ten starts. In the Premier League he commits 2.11 fouls per 90 and wins only 0.56.
He started Bournemouth’s last game. Sparta draw 14.1 fouls a game in the Czech league, and Bournemouth have committed 14.0 a game in Europe.
His foul rate gives 21/20 a small edge, and he only needs a couple of honest challenges in midfield to get there.
TIP 5: Dion Beljo Over 0.5 Shots On Target vs Sunderland
Best odds of 8/11 with Betfair Sportsbook.
1pt advised stake.
- AI Probability: 63.8%
- Odds Implied: 57.9%
- Expected Value: 10.2%
Beljo Shots On Target, last 10 starts: 0, 0, 4, 4, 1, 1, 1, 2, 3, 1
He’s hit the target in eight of his last ten starts. He has 12 league goals this season and averages 2.24 shots on target per 90, so 8/11 for just one is generous.
He’s in big form in Europe too: two goals from four shots on target against NEC a fortnight ago, and he scored against Anderlecht before that.
He started Dinamo’s last game. Sunderland have conceded 15 goals in eight Premier League games and allow 3.9 shots on target a game.
