The EV Eagle has landed on Oddschecker! 

In this new daily tipping series, the EV Eagle picks out their best bets from our Positive Expected Value tool, one of the premium tools available to Oddschecker+ subscribers. 

In today's article, the Eagle has picked out five of the best EV bets from today's football.

How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterdays Results:

David Raum – Over 0.5 Shots vs FC Union Berlin – 1pt - WON @ 13/10
Christoph Baumgartner – Over 1.5 Shots vs FC Union Berlin – 1.5pts - WON @ 8/11
Andre Brooks – Over 1.5 Shots vs West Brom – 1pt - LOST
Jaylen Wells – Over 12.5 Points vs Jazz – 1.5pts - WON @ 1/1

Running P/L: +6.36

Liverpool vs Brighton 

Tip 1: Mats Wieffer - Over 1.5 Fouls vs Liverpool - 1pt

Best odds of 17/20 available at BetMGM while publishing.

Mats Wieffer to commit over 1.5 fouls looks like a strong angle for Brighton’s trip to Anfield. The Dutch midfielder has landed this line in six of his last ten appearances and in four of his previous five games, showing a clear upward trend. He has also covered this mark in four of his last five away matches, which is encouraging ahead of a difficult fixture against Liverpool.

Wieffer averages 1.71 fouls per game in the Premier League this season, with 19 fouls committed overall, and he racked up 11 fouls across the four matches prior to last week’s clash with West Ham. Facing Liverpool’s intense pressing and fast transitions, he is likely to be heavily involved defensively, increasing the chances of him committing at least two fouls.

Tip 2: Virgil van Dijk Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt

Best odds of 3/4 available at SpreadEx while publishing. 

Virgil van Dijk looks a strong candidate to register at least one shot in this match, with the Liverpool captain exceeding 0.5 shots in seven of his last ten appearances and in each of his previous five games. His aerial presence makes him Liverpool’s primary threat from set pieces, and with Dominik Szoboszlai delivering consistently dangerous corners, chances should come his way.

van Dijk has recorded 2, 1, 1 and 1 shots across his last four outings, and playing at home against Brighton, there is every reason to expect that run to continue.

Tip 3: Marc Cucurella - Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt

Best odds of 21/20 available at QuinnBet while publishing.

Marc Cucurella is a strong candidate to commit over 1.5 fouls in this matchup, with the line offering solid value. He has cleared this mark in 40% of his last 10 appearances and averages 1.4 fouls per game this season. With Jack Grealish expected to operate directly in front of him, Cucurella is likely to be drawn into frequent one-on-one situations, increasing the chances of late tackles and tactical fouls.

Grealish himself wins an average of 3.0 fouls per game, which further strengthens the case for Cucurella being forced into defensive challenges. With an AI probability of 57% against an implied probability of 49%, this selection carries a positive EV of 17% and looks a strong bet builder leg.

Tip 4: Ellis Simms - Over 2.5 Shots - 0.5pt

Best odds of 17/20 available at Coral while publishing.

Ellis Simms is expected to bounce back after a rare quiet outing last time out. Despite failing to register a shot in his previous match, he remains Coventry’s main attacking threat and is firmly in the Golden Boot conversation with seven goals already this season.

Simms averages 2.1 shots per game, and while the 2.5 line is slightly ambitious, a home fixture against a mid-table Bristol side should provide plenty of opportunities. Given Coventry’s positive form and Simms’ importance to their attack, a return to higher shot volume looks likely.