Can Wolves continue their unbeaten run against Manchester United?
The replay of Manchester United and Wolves’ FA Cup tie is dripping with intrigue. Although Nuno’s men were only promoted a couple of seasons ago, they’ve already started to build a small hoodoo over United: winning two and drawing three their last five games against them.
When looking to tip a result, I struggled; United are so wildly inconsistent at the best of times, and with a fixture at Anfield next on the agenda, there must be a temptation for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer to rest the vast majority of his 1st XI.
Nuno will be less inclined to rotate, although they come into this in pretty stodgy form, having failed to win their last four matches in all competitions. United have also lost just twice at Old Trafford this season—once against Crystal Palace and once against Manchester City in the Carabao Cup (where they were woeful)—so they’re rightly still the favourites, but none of the results-based prices are of much interest to me, so I’m going to look a little further afield.
First up, I’m backing a penalty to be awarded in the match – priced at 3/1.
In the Premier League this season, Manchester United have received a whopping nine penalties (five more than any other side), and with the pace of Mason Greenwood and Dan James—as well as Anthony Martial and Marcus Rashford if they play—there’s every chance another one is bought. This also includes any prospective Wolves penalties, of course.
Next, I have Wolves’ Romain Saiss to be shown a card.
Referee Kevin Friend averages 3.60 yellows-per-game in the league, while Saiss is by some distance Wolves’ dirtiest player, picking up seven yellows in the Prem, despite playing fewer minutes than the next six people on the list.
Saiss will almost certainly play on Wednesday, and considering the needle that’s developed between the two teams, I’d be confident of a booking of some sort for the Moroccan.
Finally, as a nice 14/1 longshot, I have Ruben Neves to score from outside the box.
Neves has already scored from outside the area against United in his career, and 10 of his 12 goals for Wolves have been scored from outside the danger area – often in spectacular fashion.
The Portuguese is by no means prolific, but he averages 1.7 shots-per-game from outside the box this campaign, with only Raul Jimenez and Diogo Jota with attempting more shots from anywhere.
At that price, it’s worth a nibble.
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