Oli Nixon's FA Cup Tips & Best Bets for Saturday

Tip 1: Mo Salah o0.5 tackles

Best odds of 6/5 at bet365 while publishing.

Having announced his departure from Liverpool at the end of the season, Mo Salah will be desperate to go out on a high and winning the FA Cup may be his best chance of doing so with a trophy. The Egyptian isn’t renowned for his defensive work-rate but has been tasked with more responsibility off the ball by Arne Slot, averaging 0.66 tackles per 90 since the Dutchman took charge and landing this bet in seven of his last nine starts.

Salah also has a favourable tackle record in games against Man City, averaging 0.92 per game and dispossessing his opponent five times across the last three meetings. He’ll likely have the important role of tracking Jeremy Doku’s dangerous dribbles and given that the Belgian winger draws 2.78 tackles per 90, there should be plenty of opportunities for Salah to get a foot in. The last nine right sided midfielders to face City have combined for 26 tackles between them and our man is capable of adding to that number.

Chelsea v Port Vale

Tip 2: Under 2.5 Cards

Best odds of 7/5 at Boylesports while publishing.

With 61 places separating these sides in the English football pyramid, this should as one-sided as FA Cup games come and with a lack of competitive edge, there is usually very few cards. Chelsea’s games under Liam Rosenior have had plenty of bookings, however, the last time they had such a one-sided cup game away at Charlton in the third round, there were just two cards shown by the referee. There was also only one card in their last cup game against Wrexham until George Dobson’s late red card after VAR intervention and so their rotated sides aren’t creating much in the way of physicality.

Port Vale are another side whose games generally see a fair amount of cards, however, in their most comparable fixture to this one, there were no bookings against Arsenal in the EFL Cup. We also have a calm figure with the whistle in ex-player Farai Hallam and whilst he also refereed Chelsea’s fourth round tie with Hull and showed four cards, there were only 16 fouls all game and that was a much more competitive game than we can expect here. Hopefully the game is put to bed early, killing any Vale enthusiasm and the closing stages are played out in a friendly type atmosphere.

Southampton v Arsenal

Tip 3: Ryan Manning Over 2.5 Tackles

Best odds of 6/4 at bet365 while publishing.

Since Tonda Eckert took charge at Southampton, Ryan Manning has been a mainstay at left back and has been consistently getting stuck in, averaging 2.26 tackles per 90. The Irishman has made at least three tackles in three of his last five starts and when he’s faced direct wingers in both previous FA Cup rounds, he’s made three and eight tackles.

With Noni Madueke out injured and Bukayo Saka likely to be rested for the midweek Champions League quarter finals, Manning is most likely to be up against teenage sensation Max Dowman who is dispossessed 1.91 times per 90. The 16-year-old looks to drive at his direct opponent at every opportunity and Southampton’s left back will want to impose his experience upon him with some strong challenges.