England welcome a miserly Italian side to Wembley on Tuesday night.
England v Italy – Tuesday 20:00, ITV
Southgate's experimental team selection in Amsterdam did little to affect the defensive solidarity they've shown in recent outings. It's now five clean sheets on the bounce, including games hosting Germany and Brazil, but they've hardly been prolific going forward with three 1-0 wins over limited teams. The absence of Harry Kane won't help matters further, but Italy have struggled for firepower themselves with just three goals in their last six - all coming against far weaker opposition. The Azzurri showed little penetration as they lost to Argentina on Friday in Luigi Di Biagio's first game in charge, and he's unlikely to change the DNA of Italian football overnight so a low-scoring encounter should ensue.
England can't boast the devastating array of talent Argentina possess going forward, but they rarely fail to get on the scoresheet on home turf. In fact, since the start of 2014 those recent goalless stalemates against Germany and Brazil are the only times they’ve failed to net in 21 games at Wembley. However, those two are a cut above the Italians at this moment in time, and given the approach the visitors are likely to adopt, 1-0 is the standout correct score bet. Indeed, Italy have only conceded more than once in two of their last 14 matches, against Argentina and Spain, both of whom are more capable in attack than Southgate’s charges.
It took 75 minutes for Argentina to break the Italian resistance in Manchester on Friday, with this the fifth time in six games where the Azzurri have been goalless at the break. England have gone in all-square at half-time in six of their last seven matches now, with Draw/England HT/FT occurring in four of these. Interestingly, the Three Lions have emerged victorious in 10 of their last 12 home games where the scores were tied at the halfway stage, and so while they may have to be patient to find an opening they should get there in the end.
