Villarreal v Real Madrid – Sunday 19:45, Sky Sports 1

Villarreal travel to Roma on Thursday in the Europa League but are already 4-0 down so are likely to field a weakened side ahead of this clash with the league leaders. That defeat to Roma was very uncharacteristic of the Yellow Submarine, who bar Bayern have the best defensive record in Europe’s top-five divisions. At home they’ve gone W7-D2-L2 this term, which includes holding Real Madrid’s title rivals Sevilla and Barcelona to draws.

Real lost the first of their two games in hand at Valencia on Wednesday night, failing to extend their advantage at the top. It was the third time in four road matches that they’ve failed to win, with their only victory in this time coming at bottom-club Osasuna. They lost in Sevilla and drew at the Nou Camp and now face an opponent who have proven the most difficult to break-down, though don’t offer the same threat going forward. Zidane’s men were held to a 1-1 draw against Villarreal at the Bernabeu earlier in the season and in their last four trips to El Madrigal, they’ve won just once.

Since the start of last season Villarreal have lost just one of their home ties against top-six opposition, while against the Big Two they’ve drawn five of the last nine. Meanwhile since 2013/14 Real have gone just W7-D5-L7 at top-six sides, so with Villarreal’s stubborn nature we think thedraw looks a big price at 4.1.

Draw - 1pt @ 4.1