West Ham v Accrington - Wednesday 19:45
Accrington have shown a remarkable ability to keep things tight when the mood takes them. Last season, John Coleman’s men conceded just five goals in nine away games against the rest of the top eight (including knockout competitions) with eight of those games finishing under 1.5 goals. In their final ten games of their promotion run-in, they kept seven clean sheets.
This season, they’ve stood firm for 120 minutes against both Bradford and Burnley in this competition, eventually progressing after playing out a forgettable goalless draws over the initial 90 minutes. They now head to the London Stadium on the back of further clean sheets against Notts County and Portsmouth, against whom they allowed just six attempts on goal and zero shots on target.
West Ham are a cut above all those teams, of course, but the prices are right about Stanley rolling out their winning formula against this class of opposition. It’s unlikely, but nearly as unlikely as the market thinks - especially not when you take into account the myriad of issues confronting Slaven Bilic right now.
So let’s be bold and take fancy prices about Coleman having it his way. The Under 1.5 goals bet is tempting at 11/2 but the very nature of knockout football suggests that, once the deadlock is broken, other goals will follow. So instead take the 11/2 available on the draw and back it up with a bet on no goalscorer at 22/1.