Monday Night Football brings us an intriguing basement battle between Aston Villa and Newcastle.

Steve Bruce returns to the West Midlands with his Newcastle side in a strong vein of form—having won three of their last five Premier League matches—which has pushed them seven points clear of the relegation zone.

There are bigger problems for Villa, however, and a run of three straight defeats has seen them slip to 17th in the table, just three points above Watford.

Newcastle create by far the least of any Premier League side, and have mustered just 11 goals in their 12 matches—only Crystal Palace and Watford have fewer—though Villa have faced the highest number of shots out of any side in the league (229), so the dynamic of the game is very interesting.

Though Villa have lost just one of their last five home games (against Liverpool), this Newcastle side look well-organised and tough-to-beat – shown by just three defeats in their last 10, coming against the current top three in the league.

The two sides have drawn four of their last six matches against each other—as well as four of their last six at Villa Park—and looking at how both may well cancel each other out, a draw looks a very solid bet.  

Draw - 1pt @ 13/5

Newcastle’s xG is the lowest in the Premier League (10.01), which has seen them resort to the good ol’ set-piece for joy.

Four of Newcastle’s 11 goals have come from headers, and considering Villa’s propensity to ship a few (their xGA is the fourth-worst in the division), this seems like a very realistic avenue of success for the Magpies.

Centre-backs have scored in Newcastle’s last three games, and I’m backing another header to be scored on Monday.

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Header to be scored - 1pt @ 5/4