Wednesday night sees the much-anticipated return of the Premier League and the late kick-off comes at the Etihad between current champions Manchester City and Arsenal. City would be relying on a minor miracle to oust Liverpool at the top of the table so it will be interesting to see how motivated they are for this. I, for one, think they’ll come out all guns blazing after the break especially with Pep Guardiola having a fully fit squad to choose from.

Having defensive lynchpin Aymeric Laporte back in the fold is a huge boost for Pep and co; the only game he played in where City failed to win was an extremely unlucky 2-2 draw at home to Spurs early on in the campaign. Exclude that and they’ve won the other six he’s played, keeping a clean sheet of five of those, too. What’s more, Leroy Sane is back fit after an injury-ravaged campaign, and although he continues to be linked away from the club, he offers a dangerous alternative in wide forward areas.

Arsenal on the other hand have had a largely disappointing season. Unai Emery couldn’t get a tune out of his squad which still looks lacking in leaders and backbone. Mikel Arteta has come in and gained a lot of plaudits that he wouldn’t have if he wasn’t a former player. Results have marginally improved but wins have still been scarce and their underlying performance data has been poor all season and has seen no upturn since his arrival.

The Gunners are averaging 1.6 expected goals against which is terrible for a club with Champions League ambitions and only four sides concede more shots than Arsenal. Man City on the other side have consistently created a high volume of presentable opportunities in the final third, creating an average xG of 2.6 per game, by far the most impressive in the league. At the back they have looked vulnerable at times but you can’t underestimate the importance of Laporte in this team; it also means Fernandinho can go back to his more comfortable defensive midfield role.

All things considered I’m looking at this Arsenal defence and worry for them, it could be along evening and they’ve always struggled against City in the past few years with them scoring 3 or more goals in 5 of the last 6 meetings. I can see something similar occurring again here and the 10/11 on Man City off a -1 handicap looks a worthy 2 point play here. City would be shorter against a mid-table side and that’s what I see Arsenal as this season.

Man City -1 - 2pts @ 10/11