Football expert Ryan Elliott casts his eye over Aston Villa's huge game against Newcastle.
At what stage do things start getting desperate for Aston Villa? Yes, they’re only one point off safety, but Dean Smith’s men, after their clash with Newcastle, face Wolves, Liverpool, Man Utd, Crystal Palace and then Everton – hardly the easiest set of fixtures.
Villa narrowly lost to Chelsea last time out, but their long trip to Newcastle will mark their third game in just eight days which, after such a long lay-off, will surely start taking its toll.
As for Newcastle, they secured a very impressive 3-0 win over Sheffield United in their last outing. While that was massively helped by John Egan’s sending off, The Magpies were still ruthless in their dispatching of the depleted Blades, and they’ll be going into this game full of confidence.
While I’m going to steer clear of backing a result (although I do think Newcastle will avoid defeat), I see under 2.5 goals at 11/14 as a very fair price.
57% of Newcastle’s games have seen under 2.5 goals, and with the intensity of these behind-closed-doors games noticeably slower than what we’re used to, I only expect that number to rise. The Magpies’ tie with Sheffield United was a chess match before the red card, and with Villa likely to be heavy-legged and wary of avoiding defeat, I fully expect another touch-and-go affair in this one.
You know what you get with Newcastle games, so 11/14 is a price well worth snapping up.
Next, I love the look of the second half being the highest scoring half at 6/5.
We’ve seen that over 50% of the Premier League games since the league’s resumption have ended with the second half yielding more goals than the first, and Newcastle in particular are a side who often allow this tip to land.
61% of their goals are scored in the second half of matches, while Villa concede 60% of their goals in the second 45.
Furthermore, The Magpies have gone into the break goalless on 13 occasions this season, so odds-against for this tip to land, considering what’s at stake and who is playing, looks very tasty.
