It’s always tough to return for your first game back with a trip to The Etihad, and Burnley, to the surprise of precisely nobody, were tonked by Pep Guardiola’s men.

With a number of contractual issues and injuries to Chris Wood and Ashley Barnes, all doesn’t quite seem right at Burnley, and with nothing really left to play for, Nigel Pearson will feel his Watford side have an excellent opportunity to claim three points and push themselves further clear of danger.

The Hornets more than held their own against Leicester last time out, and while they only managed to grab themselves a point in the dying embers of stoppage-time, Pearson will feel that’s the least they deserved.

I don’t want to judge Burnley on their Etihad result, as they’re certainly not the first side to be hammered there, but I do find it interesting that the bookies have made Watford the favourites for this one – the lack of a Turf Moor crowd will doubtless play a part.

Looking at betting angles, I like the look of the first-half to end 0-0. We’ve seen countless times that in these post-lockdown matches, the opening exchanges of the games are played with extreme caution and a great lack of intensity, which means I’m more than happy taking 13/8 for a goalless first 45.

0-0 is Burnley’s most common half-time score this season (10 in total), and judging by how Watford operated against Leicester, I can once again see this one being decided in the later stages of the game.

0-0 half-time - 1.5pts @ 13/8

I mentioned it’s important not to judge Burnley on one bad result against Man City, but I still do believe backing Watford to win by one goal is pretty nice value at 3/1.

The Hornets have looked totally transformed under Pearson, and with Burnley’s diminished home advantage, I can’t help but feel the visitors will be seriously fancying this.

Defensively, Watford look incredibly solid these days, and while only 28 goals going in at the right end is a worry, the injury to Burnley’s two best strikers will see them operate a lot less effectively than normal.

Watford have the drive, they have more to play for, and they have a little more momentum – a narrow away win at 3/1 looks a nice little play.