Liverpool & Under 3.5 Goals

Football is a funny old game. Liverpool, prior to winning the league, were an unbeatable juggernaut, and now they look almost human – in the blink of an eye.

Of course, you can forgive Liverpool for a small downturn in form—they are champions after all—but it will certainly give their opponents for the rest of the season hope of snatching surprise results.

Brighton, who are all but assured of Premier League safety after their crucial win at Carrow Road on Saturday, will feel they have a very real chance of taking points off Liverpool for the first time in the Premier League.

The Seagulls have taken seven points from their first four games back, and only in-form Manchester United, chasing Champions League football, have beaten them post-lockdown.

Furthermore, Liverpool haven’t scored in three consecutive away games, and their performance against Aston Villa last time out, despite the 2-0 victory, was really quite laboured. If Villa had emerged from that game with a point, or even all three, Jurgen Klopp would have had few complaints – they just weren’t very good.

Indeed, the last few meetings between Brighton and Liverpool have been far from walkovers. Though Liverpool have won all five of their Premier League games against Albion, the last three have all been by just a single goal, with their clash at Anfield earlier this season ending with Liverpool hanging on for dear life with 10 men.

It also can’t be ignored that only eight sides have a better defensive record than Brighton this season, and it’s not often that they’re comprehensively outclassed like they were against United a couple of weeks ago.

All this talk of Liverpool going into a full-fledged downturn to finish the season does feel far-fetched, and it’s still unlikely that the hosts will get anything from this game in my view – though it will certainly be competitive.

For this reason, 11/8 for Liverpool to win and under 3.5 goals to be scored feels generous, considering the visitors are, after all, Premier League champions, and still possess reserves of quality far eclipsing Brighton’s.

Liverpool to secure a narrow win against the side 15th in the Premier League should definitely be shorter than 11/8, particularly considering their 100% record against Graham Potter’s men, and this will be earmarked as a good opportunity to arrest their away-day slump.  

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Liverpool & Under 3.5 Goals - 2pts @ 11/8