Manchester City & BTTS

Man City vs Newcastle isn’t one of this fixtures that instantly fills me with excitement, but I do see a few interesting betting angles which could well add extra spice to proceedings.

Of course, we could be treated to a dull attack-vs-defence type affair once again, like we saw in the FA Cup a couple of weeks ago, however Southampton’s victory over City on Sunday does raise yet more questions about last year’s champions, who have now lost nine times in the league – the same number as Sheffield United.

I do expect a certain degree of backlash from City following their defeat at St. Mary’s, and I’m in little doubt that they’ll win this game on Wednesday, although I don’t think they’ll have things all their own way.

Newcastle showed great resilience to come back from behind twice to draw with West Ham, and they’ve scored 10 goals in their four games since the restart, which is pretty impressive.

Furthermore, the Magpies have only lost two of their last four league games against City, scoring on all four occasions—netting six times in total—and you feel this is another prime opportunity for them to at least challenge City.

Of course, they could be on the receiving end of a hammering like we saw City dish out to a hungover Liverpool, but I do believe there’s value, particularly considering Newcastle’s form, in backing a home win and both teams to score at 2/1.  

Manchester City & BTTS - 1.5pts @ 2/1

Correct Score

Newcastle will set up to be solid and counter, like they did in the FA Cup, so while there’s always the threat of City tearing them to shreds, I think it’s more astute backing a slightly more closely-fought result, and therefore I’m backing a 2-1 or 3-1 home win, with lower stakes.

There are some big prices floating around in this market, and the rewards for Newcastle nicking just one goal (like they should have done in the cup, where Dwight Gayle missed an absolute sitter) are pretty enticing.

City have won seven matches either 2-1 or 3-1 this season, and while a home clean sheet is still the most likely outcome, it’s worth going down the path of Newcastle, at some stage, nicking a goal on the way to a defeat.

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2-1 - 0.75pts @ 12/1
3-1 - 0.75pts @ 12/1