Under 2.5 Goals

After they looked pretty much doomed, survival is all but in Aston Villa’s hands. Dean Smith will know that, barring a big Watford win against Arsenal, Villa require a victory at the London Stadium to remain in the Premier League.

The visitors will be buoyed by the fact that West Ham are mathematically safe, and while David Moyes will say all the right things before the game, it’s incredibly unlikely that the Hammers will be firing on all cylinders this Sunday.

Villa have taken seven points from their last three games—including a win against Arsenal last time out—and have suddenly become a really solid side, which is exactly where Bournemouth have gone wrong.

At 13/10, I’m backing under 2.5 goals. Villa have seen under 2.5 goals in six of their last seven games, while in all competitions under three goals have been scored in seven of the last eight meetings between them and West Ham (although this is over a long period of time, so it’s hard to know exactly what that means).

Villa have scored two goals or more just once in 11, and with a draw potentially good enough for them, 13/10 could end up being a very nice price.

It’s hard to know exactly what West Ham side will show up, but we do know how Villa will operate, and for this season a low-scoring nail-biter is very much on the cards.

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Under 2.5 Goals - 1pt @ 13/10